Preview: UFC Fight Night 123 ‘Swanson vs. Ortega’

Bantamweight

Iuri Alcantara (35-8) vs. Alejandro Perez (18-6-1)

ODDS: Alcantara (-210), Perez (+175)

ANALYSIS: This year has given us a glimpse at both sides of Brazil’s Alcantara, forever an enigma. He withstood an early beating and then pulled off a sensational kneebar to hand prospect Luke Sanders his first pro loss in March. Three months later in his native Brazil, he got choked out in less than two minutes by +300 underdog Brian Kelleher, who had never fought outside the northeastern United States. Mexico’s Perez provides an entertaining acid test to flesh out which version of “Marajo” we are dealing with this time around. Perez gives up four inches of reach to his southpaw opponent but is the steadier, more technical kickboxer, making up for what he lacks defensively with a jab, low kicks and well-timed takedowns. Alcantara is a low-volume striker, but he is capable of unloading with massive power with his left hand. The real question is whether or not Perez stays vertical long enough to utilize the difference in output; Alcantara struggles most against superior, well-conditioned wrestlers, and he should be able to put Perez on the ground early and attack quickly. “El Diablito” will need to shut down the early takedowns and scrambles, potshot standing and let the Brazilian undo himself. However, even if Alcantara is not a tactician, he is the far superior grappler and should close 2017 on a high note, perhaps even with another sassy submission.

Lightweight

Chris Gruetzemacher (13-2) vs. Davi Ramos (6-2)

ODDS: Ramos (-360), Gruetzemacher (+300)

ANALYSIS: An Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championships gold medalist, Ramos returns to the lightweight division for his second UFC appearance after getting a raw style matchup in his March debut, losing a unanimous decision fellow world-class grappler Sergio Moraes at 170 pounds. Gruetzemacher is returning to 155 after his February loss to Chad Skelly at featherweight and is fighting for just the second time in two years. He also has a clearly self-authored or influenced Wikipedia page, which still somehow spells his name wrong in a wide variety of ways. “Gritz” is a decent wrestler, and when he chooses to attack on the feet, he can effectively attack the body and legs of his opponents. However, Ramos will be the stronger man and far superior all-around grappler, and even if his standup is still largely comprised of wild power shots to close the distance, he should be effective in this regard. Ramos gets Gruetzemacher on the mat early, and if he does not net a quick submission, he will take a wide unanimous decision on grappling dominance.

Middleweight

Antonio Braga Neto (9-2) vs. Trevin Giles (10-0)

ODDS: Giles (-250), Braga Neto (+210)

ANALYSIS: Giles, 25, is an intriguing prospect. There is nothing unique about a former college football player training with a small team quickly acclimating to MMA. After all, Eryk Anders is on this card. However, Giles has racked up a 10-0 record with nine stoppages while never outright dominating his opposition; despite the disparity in athletic gifts between him and his victims, most of Giles’ pre-UFC career featured him overcoming adversity in order to win. His second-round stoppage of James Bochnovic in his UFC debut in July was actually unusually one-sided for Giles. This is dangerous against Neto, a two-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion with a truly diverse submission arsenal. However, Neto has fought just once in over four years -- a split decision loss that should have gone his way against Clint Hester -- due to a host of nasty injuries, including a wrecked knee, smashed sinus cavity and his getting beaten up by security guards while drunk. In the meantime, he ballooned to over 240 pounds and played semi-professional online poker. Neto’s standup is subpar and his takedowns are average, but he still manages to suck oppponents onto the ground. Giles has given up a shocking amount of dominant positions and submission looks to people like Ryan Spann, so there is real jeopardy here. This pick may look foolish if Neto goes past five minutes, gasses and gets beaten up by Giles’ high-volume pounding, but he has a great style to exploit the superior athlete, so I will take a gamble on the poker enthusiast. Neto by submission or ragged decision is the pick.