UFC Live 5 Preview: The Prelims

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Lightweights
Danny Castillo (11-3, 1-0 UFC) vs. Jacob Volkmann (12-2, 3-2 UFC)

The Matchup: Being a lightweight and hoping for a title shot nowadays is a little like being a Republican hoping to get the GOP nomination in 2012. There is a lot of road in front of you, with hurdles aplenty, along with the fact that nobody knows what will happen in terms of the larger picture between now and several months down the road.

With that said, Castillo and Volkmann are indicative of the 155-pound division’s best talents. They both have a strong wrestling base and have grasped the importance of rounding out their games to complement that with the critical other skills. Castillo’s power in his hands has made for exciting fights and violent knockouts. However, he had a hard-luck run at times in the WEC, as he lost late via submission to Shane Roller in a close bout, got knocked out by Anthony Pettis and submitted to Donald Cerrone on short-notice. He has steadily improved since, using astute tactics and just enough wrestling to decision former lightweight title contender Joe Stevenson in his UFC debut.

Volkmann has dropped down from welterweight, and while Castillo wrestled in junior college, his foe’s pedigree is much better. Volkmann was a three-time NCAA All-American at the University of Minnesota. However, he has little standup of which to speak, and Castillo can bang, which is what makes this one a real tossup.

To win this fight, Volkmann needs to follow a pretty simple script: clinch, takedown, park and repeat as necessary. Castillo will obviously be prepared and will gameplan accordingly, looking to establish a strong boxing game, using movement to deny tie-up and takedown angles and rattling Volkmann’s cage whenever he gets within punching range. It is unlikely Volkmann will be able to submit Castillo, as Team Alpha Male representatives are difficult to tap, but he will be the stronger guy in tie-ups and can take it to the floor.

A lot on this match could swing on referee standups. Given a couple of them, Castillo could sprawl-and-brawl enough to win rounds and a decision.

The Pick: Volkmann is too big and durable. He takes a decision, with a few scares from Castillo’s punches en route.

Continue Reading » Next Fight: Jason Reinhardt vs. Edwin Figueroa