Welterweights
Tim Means (28-11-1, -265) vs. Thiago Alves (23-14, +225): This should be a fun enough fight between two welterweight veterans that have provided a ton of violence over the years. A cascade of injuries put a sudden end to Alves’ prime, but even in his diminished state since his 2014 return, he has continued to be a tough out. Curtis Millender caught the former welterweight title contender with a sudden knee up the middle in early 2018, but Alves has made it to the scorecards against younger fighters every time since, even earning a narrow win over Max Griffin in February. He will take on Means, who has lost three out of his last five, though narrow split decision losses to Belal Muhammad and Sergio Moraes could have easily gone in his favor. “The Dirty Bird” is coming off the first knockout loss of his career, but that says more about the immense power of Niko Price than anything else. Otherwise, Means is more or less the same bringer of violence, as he capped 2018 by laying a beating on Ricky Rainey. Means does not have the explosive speed to score a sudden knockout like Millender did, but his massive size advantage alone should be enough to isolate him from Alves’ one-strike-at-a-time approach. He will probably eat a ton of leg kicks in the process, but the pick is Means via clear decision.Featherweights
Billy Quarantillo (12-2, -320) vs. Jacob Kilburn (8-2, +240): It took two tries, but Quarantillo is finally ready for his UFC debut. The Florida-based New York native did not particularly stand out on the 22nd season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but he rebounded well enough to earn a shot on Dana White’s Contender Series, where he scored a comeback win and a contract with a victory over Kamuela Kirk. Quarantillo is the type of jack of all trades, master of none who may have some trouble translating to the UFC level, but the flipside of that is that his well-roundedness should be able to take advantage of opponents with obvious flaws. Plus, the Kirk fight showed that Quarantillo is resilient enough to where he may be able to score a few upsets on paper. Quarantillo was initially slated to face British wrestler Chris Fishgold but now gets a completely different type of opponent in a late-replacement scenario. Kilburn had his own shot on DWCS in 2018, as he got worked on the mat by Bobby Moffett. However, he has otherwise proven himself to be an entertaining knockout artist. If Quarantillo messes around at all, he could find himself looking at the lights, but Kilburn’s takedown defense looks like something he can exploit. The pick is Quarantillo via second-round submission.Featherweights
Matt Sayles (8-2, -115) vs. Bryce Mitchell (11-0, -105): This intriguing featherweight bout has flown under the radar. Mitchell has made more headlines outside of the cage than inside -- safely store your power tools, kids -- but he is a fascinating prospect. “Thug Nasty” has a free-wheeling style and seemingly does not come in with much of a plan, relying on a mix of mobile striking and some impressive scrambling to see his way through danger. It has worked thus far, even if it figures to hit a ceiling at some point, which may or may not be against Sayles. California’s Sayles is still a hard prospect to pin down, though he is obviously skilled. He scored a one-sided win on Dana White’s Contender Series that showed him at his best, but his UFC results have been a bit more mixed. He showed some solid defense against Sheymon Moraes but still clearly lost the bout, then traded one-sided rounds with Kyle Nelson before scoring a late finish. Sayles might be able to use his pressure to track down Mitchell and control him on the mat, but the combination of Mitchell’s speed and slipperiness -- both on the feet and on the ground -- might make that a tall order. The pick is Mitchell via decision, though this is the kind of fight that should answer some questions about each fighter.Lightweights
Joe Solecki (8-2, -325) vs. Matt Wiman (16-8, +265): Considering the break between his last two fights, this is an exceptionally quick turnaround for Wiman. “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 5 veteran was assumed retired by most until he was suddenly booked against Luis Pena in June, marking a return after four and a half years out of the cage. Wiman did not look terrible, constantly fighting back in grappling exchanges against the much larger Pena, but it was more a case of surviving than mounting much of his own offense until the fight was stopped in the third round. This time around, Wiman faces a Dana White’s Contender Series alum in Solecki, a relatively unproven prospect who is not a physical monster like Pena but has shown to have some slick submission skills if nothing else. Wiman may have the veteran wiles to make this one fun and possibly even outlast Solecki, but given that Wiman’s strengths play right into the best parts of Solecki’s game, it is difficult not to favor the younger and faster fighter. The pick is Solecki via first-round submission.Finish Reading » ESPN+ Prelims