Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio’

Welterweights

Danny Roberts (13-2) vs. Bobby Nash (9-2): Two talented strikers, one quick and lithe, the other powerful and aggressive, meet here. This is a fitting choice for our featured prelim. Though he has faced considerable adversity, Roberts has comported himself well in three UFC fights. A southpaw, Roberts relies on his boxing, using a lead left and a sneaky right hook to catch aggressive opponents on the way in while moving constantly from one side to the other in order to continually reset the traps. Like newly crowned interim middleweight champ Robert Whittaker, Roberts’ boxing serves to draw the opponent’s eyes upward, distracting him from his powerful kicks. In Nash, Roberts will face a similar challenge to Mike Perry. Roberts enjoyed plenty of success against Perry when the two met in October, but “Platinum Mike” took everything he had before finding the knockout in Round 3. Thus, the fact that Nash is two inches taller than Perry with arms three inches longer is cause for concern. Nash is also a power puncher and nearly knocked out Jingliang Li on several occasions in his UFC debut. That Li ended up knocking him out, however, may hint at Roberts’ greatest advantage in this fight. Nash went for the kill so recklessly that he exhausted himself, and while he does not have a history of gassing, his eagerness to win shows that he lacks Roberts’ technical and strategic discipline. While Nash will probably find a home for his ropey punches in the first round, Roberts should be able to frustrate him with constant movement, fast hands, a clever variety of strikes and maybe even the occasional takedown to keep Nash guessing. The pick is Roberts by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Alexandre Pantoja (17-2) vs. Neil Seery (16-12): Too confident for their own good: That is how I would describe Pantoja and Seery. Formerly the Resurrection Fight Alliance flyweight champion, Pantoja is not a fantastic athlete, nor is he an exceptionally technical striker. His takedowns are also far from perfect. Nonetheless, he consistently brings opponents to the ground, lands combinations in the pocket and wears down younger, more athletic men. Seery is neither of those things. In fact, the 37 year-old Dubliner is ready to retire from professional fighting. The confidence, however, is still there, and I would not expect Seery to show much of his age in this fight. In fact, I fully expect “2Tap” to put on a show for his final trip to the cage. Pantoja is a submission artist who is willing to engage wherever. Seery shares his open-mindedness, but striking is his specialty. Simply because every round begins on the feet, Seery is well-equipped to make his particular expertise a factor before Pantoja can do the same. His awkward counterpunching will be a serious problem for Pantoja, who rarely moves his head on the way in and tends to respond to offense by lifting his arms, leaning away and abandoning his stance in order to shuffle straight back out of the pocket. If Seery were a harder puncher, Pantoja’s poor defensive habits might be enough to get him the win. He is not, however, and Pantoja has an excellent chin, having never been knocked out. While Pantoja’s wrestling is based more on tenacity than technique, Seery has defended a mere 54 percent of shots attempted against him in the UFC. He is crafty on the ground, however, and difficult to finish. Pantoja is a dangerous opportunist, but he lacks the strategic discipline ultimately required of dominant grapplers. In other words, he is just as happy to jump guard for a guillotine as he is to finish a single-leg and end up on top. If Seery can scramble his way free, his high-output boxing will win the day. Seery by unanimous decision is the pick.

Welterweights

Charlie Ward (3-2) vs. Galore Bofando (4-2): He who controls the center will control this fight. Ward is a hard-nosed slugger but far from elite in terms of explosiveness, speed and agility. He keeps a tight guard, moves with small steps and uses a hard jab to feel out his opponent’s defenses. Though he is not fast, his willingness to stand on the edge of range and throw hard counters makes him a dangerous foe. As far as athleticism is concerned, however, England’s Bafando has him beat by a mile. Bofando is all dynamism. His striking arsenal consists of a mix of probing and stabbing side kicks, brutal Thai-style round kicks and a variety of trick spins. If he has his opponent backing up and waiting on his next attack, Bofando will find a dozen different ways to send shins, heels and knuckles streaking to the target. This is a problem for Ward, who often lets his opponents lead in order to find a counter. Ward’s saving grace may be his wrestling. Though he lacks a clean shot, he uses his strength to drag opponents to the ground from the clinch and especially against the fence. Bofando’s speed and dazzling striking should enable him to control the center in the early going, however, and Ward’s chin will be tested. If Bofando’s three knockout wins are any indication, it will not pass the test. The pick is Bofando by first-round TKO.

Lightweights

Danny Henry (10-2) vs. Daniel Teymur (6-0): The African MMA scene does not yet compare to that in other parts of the world, but Scotland’s Henry has found a home in South Africa’s Extreme Fighting Championship organization and faced a solid slate of opponents in the process. Henry utilizes a fairly upright muay Thai style, but he throws technical offense and is not afraid of letting his strikes go in an exchange. Sweden’s Teymur -- brother of UFC fighter David Teymur -- is a little faster and a little better on defense. Like his brother, he throws quick kicks and frequently surprises opponents with quick counterpunches as they march forward. That ability will come in handy against the forward-moving Henry. On the other hand, Henry probably has the better chin. In fact, Teymur’s win over Emerick Youmbi came after Teymur was knocked down and the fight waved off. That Teymur followed the questionable restart with a finish of his own is a testament to his toughness, but Henry has never been knocked out and seems to have little trouble walking through punches. Both men throw an excellent counter hook, so this one could end suddenly if the two newcomers consent to fight in the pocket. Henry is more willing to employ takedowns but he has been outwrestled in the past, and every fighter from Sweden’s Allstars Training Center has solid takedown defense. Henry and Teymur have aggressive ground games, though the former’s style will likely place him in top position if the fight goes to the ground. I think Teymur’s speed and combination punching could be the difference in a close fight. The pick is Teymur by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Brett Johns (13-0) vs. Albert Morales (7-1-1): Johns is one of the top prospects in the UFC’s most interesting division, so this featured prelim alone makes this month’s Fight Pass payment worthwhile. A black belt in judo, Johns’ style looks more like that of Khabib Nurmagomedov than Ronda Rousey. Though Johns rarely shows a blast double, he still manages to execute high-impact takedowns by ripping his opponent’s base away near the fence. His superb chain wrestling enables him to finish his shots with everything from spectacular lifts to single-leg crackdowns. As a striker, Johns remains a work in progress, though he did display a few tricky set-ups in his UFC debut against Kwan Ho Kwak. Most of his best punches, however, landed thanks to the threat of the takedown. There is good reason to believe that Johns will struggle against an opponent who can thwart his wrestling, and that is precisely what Morales will attempt to do. Morales is a dangerous striker who uses a pestering combination of jabs and kicks to set up powerful combinations. When Morales finds himself in an exchange, he throws punches in bunches and has more than enough power to get the job done. He is also a plus athlete, with more speed and explosiveness than Johns. While Morales is also a capable wrestler and grappler, he has never faced an opponent as relentless, well-conditioned and skilled as Johns in that department. So long as Johns can get his takedown game working in the first round, he should be able to keep Morales playing catch-up all night. Johns by unanimous decision is the pick.

Women’s Bantamweights

Leslie Smith (9-7-1) vs. Amanda Lemos (6-0-1): Smith is renowned for her toughness, and her style perfectly justifies her unofficial “Lady Diaz” moniker. While Smith has relied on that toughness throughout most of her career, she showed some astronomical improvements in her last fight -- a thrilling victory over Irene Aldana. Smith delivered power punches with superb timing, knocking down down in the first round, and applied intelligent pressure, slipping and blocking her way into the pocket while never giving up on the overhand right that landed cleanly throughout the contest. Smith is still fairly hittable, however, and newcomer Lemos is a bona fide power puncher. A former Jungle Fight champion, Lemos employs a stalking style that only serves to make her explosive punches and kicks more surprising. However, she is rather small for the division. Lemos has weighed in one pound below the bantamweight limit in four of her fights, and at 5-foot-4, she will be a full five inches shorter than Smith. Lemos has a powerful sprawl, and she will likely be able to force Smith into a kickboxing match. Smith will have the opportunity to use her size and strength in the clinch, however, and her constant pressure may take Lemos, who is used to controlling the center of the cage uncontested, by surprise. Smith’s durability, pace and aggression are her edges in this fight, and they are enough to pick her by unanimous decision in an enticing matchup.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.