Welterweights
Brendan O'Reilly (6-1) vs Alan Jouban (12-4): Jouban is totally comfortable in a brawl. Most fighters brawl because they are put in a tough spot or because they hope to scare off the opponent; Jouban does it because that is who he is. However, he does end up in tough spots. He seems to get hurt badly in nearly every fight, but he becomes far more dangerous after being staggered. Jouban is a powerful kicker and combination puncher, but he is especially dangerous in the clinch, and, unfortunately for the Aussie, that is where O’Reilly likes to fight. O’Reilly is a crafty takedown artist, and his high-pressure passing game leads him to many advantageous positions on the ground. To get there, however, he will have to get past Jouban’s uppercuts, elbows and knees -- not a kind proposition. In addition, Jouban is a crafty submission grappler himself. The pick is Jouban by first-round KO.Featherweights
Daniel Hooker (12-6) vs Mark Eddiva (6-2): For whatever reason, Hooker was not himself in his most recent fight, a flaccid turn against Yair Rodriguez that curiously saw him stand southpaw for the entire bout. In every other UFC appearance, Hooker has displayed aggression, tight combination punching and vicious striking in the clinch and on the ground. As a tall pocket fighter, Hooker is hittable and his shallow defensive repertoire does not do him any favors, but if the battering he absorbed at the hands of Maximo Blanco is any example, he is as durable as they come. Certainly Eddiva is tough, as well; he nearly succeeded in brawling with Edimilson Souza, one of the featherweight division’s hardest hitters. Eddiva likes to fight at range, working behind a lightning-quick left side kick and a short counter right hand while mixing in outside low kicks. If Hooker is as tentative as he was against Rodriguez, then these tools could lead Eddiva to victory. Assuming that performance was an outlier, however, Hooker’s pressure should neutralize Eddiva’s strengths much like Souza’s did. Also like Souza, Hooker’s chin will come in handy. Hooker toughs out a back-and-forth first round and takes a unanimous decision.Welterweights
Richard Walsh (9-3) vs Viscardi Andrade (18-6): If you were asked to pick which of these two men had a more reliable fighting style, you would almost certainly choose Walsh. The Australian’s brand of high-pressure muay Thai is very much the “in” thing in MMA today. Styles make fights, however, and Andrade’s oddball brawling just might give Walsh pause. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Andrade has been more slugger than grappler in his recent UFC performances, and he is not actually all that bad at it. He also prefers an awkward, rangy striking style that employs a lot of lateral movement. If Walsh’s stamina starts to fail him, as it did in his UFC 193 bout with Steve Kennedy, then Andrade could outlast him -- which could lead to late takedowns and worse. Still, this analysis began with an acknowledgement that Walsh is the more reliable fighter, and his consistent output and clear strategizing should be enough. Walsh survives a few scares to take a unanimous decision.Lightweights
Alan Patrick Silva Alves (12-1) vs Damien Brown (15-8): Alves gets a short-notice replacement in Brown after original opponent Chad Laprise was pulled to face Ross Pearson instead. Brown is a dangerous man to face on short notice. His aggressive style is a sharp contrast to the patient kickboxing of Laprise. Provided Alves can survive the first round, however, Brown’s lack of preparation could lead to stamina issues. He tends to be a little too aggressive for his own good and is often willing to battle his opponents strength-for-strength; take, for example, the time he willingly tangled with submission specialist Paul Redmond on the ground. Look for Alves’ eccentric, rangy striking to throw a wrench in the very traditional muay Thai approach of Brown, particularly in the big, full-sized Octagon. Brown will be dangerous, but Alves is a more composed and diverse striker; and his top game will be there for him when Brown starts to slow. Alves takes it by third-round submission.Welterweights
Ross Pearson (18-10) vs Chad Laprise (10-1): What appeared to be a solid run for Pearson was stopped in its tracks when the Sunderlander was poleaxed by Al Iaquinta. Since then, he has settled back into his role as an entertaining gatekeeper. As such, he is perfectly situated to test Tristar Gym prospect Laprise, both men having just lost to Francisco Trinaldo. In the past, I have described Laprise as Firas Zahabi’s ideal kickboxer, because he relies heavily on angular footwork and straight punches, avoiding damage while racking up points. Outside of the Trinaldo knockout, Laprise’s problem has been one of efficiency. He always starts strong and flags as the fight wears on. Fortunately for Laprise, he and Pearson have agreed to fight at welterweight, which should help alleviate the stamina issues. If Laprise follows Trinaldo’s blueprint and forces Pearson to come forward, he will be able to avoid the Englishman’s clever counter punching and work his way to a close unanimous decision.Women’s Bantamweights
Leslie Smith (7-6-1) vs Rin Nakai (16-1-1): Nakai’s record looks a lot shinier than Smith’s, but looks can be deceiving. Nakai was fed novice after novice for years in order to build that 16-0-1 resume, and the lack of experience against stiff competition was more than evident in her flat showing against Miesha Tate. Smith, on the other hand, has fought almost nothing but top competition since the start of her career. Losses to Sarah Kaufman, Barb Honchak and Jessica Eye are not to be taken lightly. In each performance, Smith has shown extreme durability and the scrappy style to match. Nakai’s own style has always been a bit disjointed. She is not comfortable in the pocket and moves inefficiently. Smith’s aggression could open her up to some of Nakai’s reactive takedowns, but she typically has solid takedown defense and good scrambling instincts, as well. Nakai will likely have a few moments thanks to her strength, but Smith will be walking her down all night. The pick is Smith by unanimous decision.Finish Reading » Specialty Selections