Sam Stout has lost five of his last eight fights, including two straight. | Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
Lightweights
Sam Stout (20-11-1, 8-10 UFC) vs. Frankie Perez (9-2, 0-1 UFC): With three losses inside the distance in his last four fights and his prime in the rearview mirror, the veteran Stout gets one last chance in front of the Canadian crowd. He draws New Jersey’s Perez, a training partner of Frankie Edgar who lost his short-notice debut to Johnny Case in January. Perez is mostly a grappler, though he can hit a few takedowns and has a nice kicking arsenal at range. Stout remains a striker by preference who is more inclined to brawl than to stick and move with punch-kick combinations at range, which remains his best skill set. A few years ago this likely would have been Stout’s fight to lose given his takedown defense and edge in striking skill, but wear and tear has severely depleted him. The pick is Perez by submission in the third round.
Bantamweights
Yves Jabouin (20-10, 5-4 UFC) vs. Felipe Arantes (16-7-1, 3-3-1 UFC): Brazil’s Arantes drops to 135 pounds following a seven-fight run at featherweight and draws the veteran Jabouin in an excellent bantamweight matchup. Arantes’ teammate, Thomas Almeida, knocked out Jabouin in the Canadian’s last outing in April, while Andre Fili soundly out-wrestled Arantes in October. Jabouin is an excellent striker with good output, a clean counter game and a whipping left kick. He wrestles and grapples well enough to stay defensively sound and provide a change of pace. While known mostly as a kickboxer with a strong kicking game, Arantes is also a solid wrestler and an excellent ground striker. Jabouin throws more volume and is a bit more technical on the feet, but the Brazilian is more durable, hits harder and is likely the better grappler. The pick is Arantes by knockout in the second round.
Light Heavyweights
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (13-2-1, 2-0 UFC) vs. Nikita Krylov (18-4, 3-2 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4” competitor Lima looks to build on his two first-round knockout finishes in the UFC against the Ukrainian Krylov in a matchup of up-and-coming light heavyweights. They are two of the only young and talented -- by the standards of the division -- fighters at 205 pounds, which gives this more meaning than it otherwise might. Lima, a former top prospect, is an aggressive striker with big power in his punches and kicks and a vicious clinch game. Krylov is mostly a range striker, with slick kicks and a decent punching arsenal to go along with a few submissions in transition. Lima should be much bigger and stronger, and he likely has a big edge in power and clinch work. The pick is Lima by knockout in the first round.
Flyweights
Chris Kelades (8-2, 1-1 UFC) vs. Chris Beal (10-1, 2-1 UFC): Canada’s Kelades draws the American Beal in a decent flyweight matchup. Kelades upset Patrick Holohan in his short-notice UFC debut, only to be dominated by Ray Borg in his return engagement. Beal was a competitor on Season 18 of “The Ultimate Fighter” and lost his undefeated record against Ireland’s Neil Seery in January after winning his first two fights in the promotion. Kelades is durable and can do a bit of everything, but he lacks athleticism or a standout skill set. The American is mostly a boxer with some pop in his hands and decent wrestling skills. The pick is Beal by decision.
Lightweights
Shane Campbell (11-3, 0-1 UFC) vs. Elias Silverio (11-1, 3-1 UFC): Canada’s “Shaolin” Campbell gets a second shot after dropping his debut on short notice to John Makdessi, drawing Brazil’s Silverio in a well-booked lightweight fight. Silverio had been on a roll, winning his first three fights in the UFC, before running into a series of Rashid Magomedov’s counterpunches in his last fight. Campbell is a well-credentialed kickboxer with a slick, technical punch-kick game at range, strong knees in the clinch and enough defensive wrestling to stay standing. The Brazilian is mostly a striker, with a rangy kicking game backed up with strong work in the clinch, solid offensive wrestling and a controlling top game. Silverio is a surprisingly big favorite at -250, and if he is content to strike instead of mixing in wrestling and top control, Campbell will chew him up at range. The pick is Campbell by decision in a mild upset.
Light Heavyweights
Daniel Jolly (5-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Misha Cirkunov (9-2, 0-0 UFC): A Canadian by way of Latvia, Cirkunov has long been one of the top light heavyweight prospects in the world and finally debuts in the UFC against Texas’ Jolly. Cirkunov has a deep background in judo and wrestling, and the clinch is his wheelhouse. He throws sharp knees and elbows, hits strong takedowns and can finish with strikes or submissions on the ground. Jolly is a good athlete with some measure of skill everywhere and a preference for powerful takedowns, but each facet of his game lacks depth. The Canadian is and should be the favorite given his substantial advantage in the clinch and wrestling phases. The pick is Cirkunov by submission in the second round.