Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Gustafsson vs. Teixeira’

Bantamweights

Pedro Munhoz (13-2) vs. Damian Stasiak (10-3): Stasiak is an odd fighter. Billed as a karate specialist, there is little more than the occasional spinning back kick to suggest the Pole is comfortable on the feet. He is far more potent on the ground, and while his preference for guard grappling is not ideal at this level of competition, a more aggressive wrestling game has given him two straight wins. The latest of these, over the hard-nosed Davey Grant, was an impressive upset and the best win of Stasiak’s career. However, it is difficult to imagine his skill set faring well against Munhoz. A potent finisher in his own right, Munhoz has stagnated somewhat since his impressive short-notice debut against perennial contender Raphael Assuncao. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that Munhoz no longer trains with Kings MMA’s Rafael Cordeiro, who has a famous knack for turning submission grapplers into aggressive, technical kickboxers. Still, the men who have beaten Munhoz have been phenomenal kickboxers with rock-solid takedown defense, not grapplers like Stasiak. Munhoz is a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with solid wrestling, and he is by far the more consistent offensive striker, landing 3.93 strikes per minute to Stasiak’s 0.86. The pick is Munhoz by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Trevor Smith (14-7) vs. Chris Camozzi (24-12): This is a tough one to call. Smith and Camozzi are two of the most seasoned men on the UFC middleweight roster, and both have glaring holes in their games of which the other could easily take advantage. For Smith, wrestling will be the key to victory. Though he often struggles to score against more athletic opponents, Camozzi lacks the explosion and speed to keep Smith from chaining together takedown attempts. On the ground, Smith has solid control and respectable if unremarkable ground-and-pound. He rarely gets to show it in the UFC, but he has some submission skills, as well. Camozzi only defends 59 percent of takedowns. Smith is also hittable, however, and not too difficult to hurt. He has been knocked out four times, always in the first round. Camozzi is not the most powerful puncher in the world, but he throws clean, straight punches and hard knees in the clinch. The men who have stopped Smith, however, have all been notably more impactful than Camozzi. Ultimately, it seems that Camozzi will need to finish early or spend three rounds defending takedowns; and his fondness for low kicks may give Smith all the openings he needs. The pick is Smith by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Nicholas Musoke (13-4) vs. Bojan Velickovic (14-4-1): With Musoke and Velickovic known for a certain level of inactivity, this fight does not exactly have “barnburner” written all over it. For those interested in fighter development, however, both men seem capable of something more. This fight will be their chance to prove it. Musoke enters this bout on the back of a 28-month hiatus. It is impossible to know whether he will show up refreshed and refined or rusty from such a long time on the sidelines. At his best, however, Musoke is a methodical kickboxer with sharp kicks and a stifling defensive wrestling game. Velickovic is wiry strong, but his movements always seem somewhat ungainly, his reactions a little slow, his attacks predictable. Worse, he rarely shows the kind of urgency necessary for a fighter who consistently finds himself in razor-thin fights. Velickovic’s struggles in the UFC have mostly come at the hands of wrestlers, so in that sense Musoke is a forgiving opponent. Even given the striking battle he wants, Velickovic fights a little too much like a jack of all trades, whereas Musoke has just a little bit more of the specialist’s focus -- reinforced by solid takedown defense and more offensive output than Velickovic. In a fight that seems fated to be close and frustrating, a clear strategy could go a long way. The pick is Musoke by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Darren Till (13-0-1) vs. Jessin Ayari (16-3): Ayari did not look like much heading into his UFC debut, but a close win over well-rounded veteran Jim Wallhead was just the performance he needed to announce himself as a potential contender; and at 24 years old, he has plenty of time to keep on growing. Ayari has solid footwork and sharp punches, but he has a little more confidence on the feet than his porous defense warrants, meaning that he has to rely on his chin. That could pose a problem against Till, a Thai-style kickboxer who will enjoy a slight reach advantage. Ayari will switch stances, but Till is committed to his fundamentally sound southpaw game, which is built on the pick-your-poison interplay between the left straight and the left round kick. Till is an accurate and powerful puncher, and he complements his long range striking with powerful knees from the double collar tie. It has been a year and a half since Till drew with Nicolas Dalby -- a fight he was dominating before dislocating his shoulder and absorbing a great deal of punishment in the third round. Provided he has recaptured his old form in the interim, Till’s timing and power should give him the edge in this matchup. Till by second-round TKO is the pick.

Lightweights

Marcin Held (22-5) vs. Damir Hadzovic (10-3): Hadzovic has not fought since his loss to Mairbek Taisumov in his UFC debut, with a visa issue and an injury forcing him out of two scheduled dates with Yusuke Kasuya. Now, “The Bosnian Bomber” returns to the cage, and Poland’s Held is the perfect opponent to determine his place in the stacked lightweight division. Held was highly touted coming into the UFC after compiling an impressive 11-3 record in Bellator MMA. After two straight losses, however, it is starting to look like Held’s unorthodox, grappling-oriented style may not be suited for the upper echelons of MMA. Fortunately, Held showed some improved striking in a close fight with Joe Lauzon in January. Had he forced the striking game against Diego Sanchez, he almost certainly would have won. That he opted to drag the experienced grappler to the ground, however, is some cause for concern. Hadzovic’s game is utterly devoid of such existential crises. He is a boxer-puncher with an aggressive clinch game, and that is how he fights. He is something of a slow starter, however, and fighters like Ivan Musardo have stymied him in the past with awkward striking. Musardo could not take Hadzovic’s power, but the iron-chinned Held probably can. If he uses his kickboxing to set up clean takedowns, this fight is his to lose. The pick is Held by unanimous decision.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.