Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Almeida vs. Garbrandt’

Women’s Bantamweights
Sara McMann (8-3) vs Jessica Eye (11-4): This is a must-win fight for both McMann and Eye, both of whom are 3 for 4 since 2013. McMann entered the UFC full of promise, owing to her wrestling background and knockout power. Since losing to Ronda Rousey, however, the holes in McMann’s game have become evident. Though powerful, her striking game is more or less limited to the heavy right hand, and she has not shown the ground skills necessary to complement her wrestling. Eye, on the other hand, has shot herself in the foot by being too willing to grapple with stronger, more experienced grapplers. In a word, Eye is too scrappy for her own good. That scrappiness could help her against McMann, who has wilted in fights before. This fight would be a classic striker vs grappler matchup if only McMann weren’t such a powerful puncher, and Eye weren’t so happy to tangle on the ground. It’s essentially a pick’em fight, but Eye’s grit, scrambling ability, and killer instinct give her the edge. The pick is Eye by third-round submission.

Lightweights
Abel Trujillo (14-6) vs Jordan Rinaldi (12-4): Rinaldi fills in for Carlos Diego Ferreira on short notice to fight Trujillo, an inconsistent but extremely dangerous lightweight knockout artist. Rinaldi is a reasonably well-rounded fighter, but his one-off striking style more or less exists to create openings for his wrestling. Once in on his opponent’s hips, Rinaldi shows solid chain wrestling and good finishing instincts on the ground -- he ended 3 of his last 5 fights via submission. That style is unlikely to work against Trujillo, however -- especially on short notice. Trujillo has struggled to maintain composure in the face of adversity, but that adversity usually comes in the form of precise, powerful strikes. Only Khabib Nurmagomedov has managed to make Trujillo look average as a wrestler, and Trujillo is not alone in that regard. Expect Trujillo to use his patented blend of wild punching and vicious clinch striking to put Rinaldi away. Trujillo by first-round KO.

Middleweights
Jake Collier (9-3) vs Alberto Emiliano Pereira (9-0): “Uda” is a striker in the Charles Oliveira mold, which is to say he likes to walk straight forward, head held high, and look for the clinch. As a range striker, he is at once too stiff and too loose, either throwing himself off balance with telegraphed punches, or standing stock straight while throwing an undisguised kick. In the clinch, however, Pereira is exceedingly dangerous. He does an excellent job of off-balancing his opponent in order to prepare them for hard knees and short punches. Pereira is also dangerous on the ground, although he is curiously better from bottom than he is on top. Collier lacks Uda’s dangerous specializations, but in turn he is a much more well-rounded fighter. His approach is, for lack of a better word, more trustworthy than Pereira’s. Collier is cognizant of his position in the cage, knows how to work a jab, and adjusts when things aren’t going his way. That ringcraft will be the ace up his sleeve against a dangerous newcomer in Pereira. The pick is Collier by split decision.

Lightweights
Erik Koch (14-4) vs Shane Campbell (12-4): Koch makes his return for the first time in over two years after pulling out of three consecutive matchups with injuries. Campbell is just 1 for 3 in his UFC career, but he has demonstrated an ever-evolving MMA game, and comported himself very well against a better-than-ever James Krause in his last outing. Both Koch and Campbell are rangey kickboxers, but Campbell’s pro kickboxing background makes him a more reliable fighter in that phase, and Koch is not so strong of a wrestler to force the fight to the ground if need be. Koch also tends to leave himself open to counters, and Campbell is a very good counter striker. Unless Koch has found some new life in his time away from the Octagon, Campbell should have his number. Campbell by second-round TKO.

Bantamweights
Aljamain Sterling (13-0) vs Bryan Caraway (20-7): Easily the highlight of the preliminaries, top prospect Sterling will have a tough test on his hands in the form of Caraway. Caraway is not well-liked for a number of reasons, but that fact has disguised the true nature of this matchup. The truth is that Caraway, a submission wrestler with considerable experience and grit, happens to be the first opponent of Sterling’s who can really test him in the kinds of scramble-y grappling battles he prefers. Neither Sterling nor Caraway are great strikers. Sterling relies on a combination of kicks and takedowns to control range on the feet, and Caraway is more of a come-forward bruiser, like his girlfriend, UFC bantamweight champion Miesha Tate. On the ground, however, both men are excellent transitional grapplers. Caraway finds ways to the back with shocking regularity, as does Sterling. In the end, Sterling’s natural athleticism is the clearest advantage in either fighter’s corner. Unless he reacts badly to the competitiveness of Caraway’s grappling, that speed, power, and strength should be enough to net him an impressive win. The pick is Sterling by unanimous decision.

Heavyweights
Chris de la Rocha (4-1) vs Adam Milstead (7-1): UFC debutante Milstead will look to score his eighth finish victory when he faces de la Rocha, who lost his own (short notice) debut to Daniel Omielanczuk in July of 2015. Milstead has a wrestling background, but pocket boxing has been his calling card as a mixed martial artist. An occasional training partner of current UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic, Milstead is comfortable trading blows in mid-range, and will occasionally shoot for a takedown, though his success has been mixed. De la Rocha is a more defined grappler, though he is certainly willing to mix things up on the feet. Bulkier and broader than Milstead, de la Rocha will most likely need that grappling to compete, as he is extremely hittable at long range -- though it would be a surprise if Milstead KO’d him as easily as Omielanczuk did. Still, the pick is Milstead by KO in the first round.