Preview: UFC Fight Night 149 ‘Overeem vs. Oleynik’

Featherweights

Movsar Evloev (10-0) vs. Sung Woo Choi (7-1): Evloev is definitely a prospect to watch, whether he goes back to 135 pounds or stays at featherweight. The Russian has already faced a strong level of competition and passed every test with flying colors. Evloev’s base is a mauling wrestling game, but beyond that, he is a practiced striker and has already proven to have five rounds of cardio in him. Evloev looks to show off those skills against a fellow debutant in Choi, as the Korean steps in on late notice. Choi follows in the tradition of his countrymen of prioritizing offense over defense and fighting like a madman when he has to, but this looks like a rough night for him. Evloev can be a bit overaggressive when chasing takedowns, so Choi has a chance to tag him, but in general, the former M-1 Global champion should have no problem taking this to the mat and winning handily. The pick is Evloev via decision. ODDS: Evloev (-280), Choi (+220)

Welterweights

Sultan Aliev (14-3) vs. Keita Nakamura (34-9-2): It is nice to see Aliev actually make it to a fight, as injuries have limited the Russian to only three appearances since he signed with the UFC back in 2014. He is a perfectly fine grinder, though the upside may be limited compared to his countrymen. Aliev has already suffered a flash knockout against Kenny Robertson and gotten his eye blown up by Warlley Alves. Here, he looks to get the win on home soil against Nakamura, who has found a solid niche in his second UFC stint. Nakamura will always struggle against the better athletes at welterweight, but his technical well-roundedness and high-level toughness are enough to make him a difficult out for anyone in the division. Neither man is much of a round-winner on the feet, so if this is a kickboxing match, it figures to go to a tedious split decision. Eventually, these two men figure to clinch up, and from there, Aliev does not look powerful enough to stifle Nakamura’s signature back-take game. The pick is Nakamura via second-round submission. ODDS: Nakamura (-115), Aliev (-105)

Lightweights

Alexander Yakovlev (23-8-1) vs. Alex da Silva Coelho (20-1): Given that it has been two and a half years since his last fight, it comes as a surprise to see Yakovlev back in the Octagon -- and at lightweight, no less. Yakovlev had a one-off fight at 155 pounds against Gray Maynard in 2015 before moving back to welterweight, which was a shame since Yakovlev’s lack of physical strength was always his undoing at 170. Whatever the reason, Yakovlev is back down in what is probably a better division for him to face Coelho. The newcomer rose through the regional ranks by crushing cans in Brazil but has looked solid since moving to a more global stage, even if he remains a raw athlete who has some solid skills that have yet to coalesce into something coherent. This is an interesting fight, pitting Yakovlev’s veteran savvy against Coelho’s superior athleticism, but given that defensive wrestling has been the Brazilian's undoing, the pick is for Yakovlev to grind out a decision. ODDS: Yakovlev (-150), da Silva (+120)

Heavyweights

Marcin Tybura (17-4) vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov (19-4): Even though this does not figure to be the most exciting bout, it is still surprising to see it this far down on the card given that it might be the second-most relevant fight of the event. Tybura has been solid but unremarkable. To his credit, a debut loss to Timothy Johnson quickly made him realize that grinding out wins against bigger athletes would not work, so the Pole pivoted to a decent striking game, as needed. That is not to say Tybura has abandoned his wrestling game entirely. He used it to great effect against Stefan Struve in his most recent appearance and probably leaned on it too heavily in a loss to Derrick Lewis. Tybura faces Russia’s Abdurakhimov, who is a similar fighter to some extent, as his fights tend to go by his ability to outwrestle his opponent. Outside of that, Abdurakhimov is forced to rely on a striking game that is surprisingly mobile but often too low-output and low-powered to win rounds. Abdurakhimov could pick apart Tybura in a slow-paced kickboxing match, but the former M-1 Global champion looks to be the more effective fighter on the feet and should be able to win any wrestling battles. The pick is Tybura via decision. ODDS: Tybura (-160), Abdurakhimov (+140)

Light Heavyweights

Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-5) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (13-2): This is another fight that is shockingly low on the card, particularly since Poland’s Oleksiejczuk is the rare interesting light heavyweight prospect. Oleksiejczuk’s game did not look translatable to the UFC level, as he mostly allowed himself to get hit before waiting out and finishing his opponents; as it turns out, he is tough enough to make it work. He ate a whole bunch of strikes from heavy hitter Khalil Rountree before taking over the balance of the fight. A subsequent failed drug test cost Oleksiejczuk all of 2018, but he picked up right where he left off with a surprisingly quick knockout of Gian Villante in February. He steps in on a short turnaround to take on Antigulov, who is an under-the-radar intriguing light heavyweight. Antigulov’s game is simple but effective, as he relentlessly pursues takedowns in the hopes of chaining things to his power submission game. When it works, he can get his opponent out of the cage in short order, but when it does not, the situation tends to go just as quickly in the other direction. That is the dynamic here. Oleksiejczuk’s pace and diversity of strikes should be able to take this fight if it remains on the feet, but his takedown defense is a complete question mark. Until he proves he can keep this fight standing, the pick is Antigulov via first-round submission. ODDS: Oleksiejczuk (-215), Antigulov (+170)

Lightweights

Magomed Mustafaev (13-2) vs. Rafael Fiziev (6-0): The night should kick off with some fireworks in this lightweight pairing. It is good to see Mustafaev back. The Russian was a surging prospect before a loss to Kevin Lee in November 2016, after which Mustafaev completely fell off the map. Mustafaev’s entire game is based around power, whether he is taking opponents into the clinch or just hitting them hard, but Lee exposed the lack of depth in Mustafaev’s grappling game and a shaky gas tank while scoring the win. Mustafaev’s return comes against hyped newcomer Fiziev, who is best known for his flashy array of strikes. Fiziev immediately becomes one of the more entertaining fighters on the roster, though he does look like someone who will struggle as he faces stronger wrestlers. Even if Mustafaev manages to bull Fiziev around and control the fight early, his gas tank should eventually betray him and allow the undefeated Kyrgyzstani to start taking over the fight. The pick is Fiziev via third-round stoppage. ODDS: Mustafaev (-180), Fiziev (+150)