Women’s Strawweights
Ashley Yoder (5-4) vs. Amanda Bobby Cooper (3-4): Mackenzie Dern victims collide here in a solid strawweight bout. Cooper is a mildly interesting prospect -- she is an adequate athlete, comes from a boxing background and has a decent grappling game -- but as her record suggests, the skills have yet to coalesce into much of anything. She can win fights in phases, but porous defense and a general rawness to her abilities means she has enjoyed little success when unable to physically overwhelm her opponent. She takes on Yoder, who has a soundly-put-together game, blending surprisingly strong grappling skills with some low-power kickboxing. However, she has gone winless in her three UFC bouts to date, mostly due to an inability to fully take over a fight. Still, I like Yoder’s chances here. Cooper might be able to win a straight boxing match, but at some point, one of the two is going to look to take this fight to the ground; and depending on Cooper to leave herself open for a submission has traditionally been a safe bet. The pick is Yoder via second-round submission. ODDS: Yoder (-160), Cooper (+140)Featherweights
Chas Skelly (17-3) vs. Bobby Moffett (13-3): It will be good to see Skelly back after a year-plus layoff. Even though he is coming off of a loss, he seemed to be figuring out things during his most recent run of fights. Skelly has historically been an aggressive if not particularly controlling wrestler, and since his 2016 loss to Darren Elkins, “The Scrapper” has added an acceptable striking game to those grappling skills. He welcomes Illinois native Moffett, who is coming off an excellent turn on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, where he mostly ran through Jacob Kilburn on his way to a second-round submission. Moffett has some charisma and could become a cult favorite, but “The Wolfman” faces a tough task here. This fight really depends on who proves to be the stronger wrestler, which is hard to glean. The way to beat Skelly has primarily been to win those grimy exchanges, and I could see that being a path to victory Moffett can pull off. However, it would be his only path to victory. Skelly looks like the better striker and has the experience edge, so in a case where the wrestling feels like a toss-up, I favor Skelly due to those other advantages. I am high on Moffett, but the pick is Skelly via decision. ODDS: Skelly (-130), Moffett (+110)Lightweights
Beneil Dariush (14-4-1) vs Thiago Moises (11-2): Dariush should be hitting his prime, but instead, he has hit the skids, going winless since late 2016. Dariush’s combination of elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills and a technically sound pressure striking game look good on paper, but in practice, his athleticism has doomed him against stronger competition. Sometimes, he will just tire himself out late, but in general, Dariush’s main problem has been handling quicker fighters and their attempt to blitz him. Losses to Ramsey Nijem and Alexander Hernandez were quick, swarming blowouts, and a fight against Edson Barboza was going fine until the Brazilian decided to uncork a destructive flying knee. The debuting Moises is a tough opponent for Dariush, but I am not sure he will press his possible advantages. Thanks to a smart, well-rounded game that belies his 23 years of age, Moises has been a top prospect for a few years. Against his best opposition, Moises has been a patient fighter who is content to slowly break down his counterparts. He looked a bit more aggressive in knocking out Gleidson Curtis to earn a contract on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series Brazil, but I still do not full trust that Moises will rush Dariush and try to score a finish. This is a well-made fight and a significant opportunity for Moises, but the pick is Dariush via decision. ODDS: Dariush (-160), Moises (+140)Lightweights
Devonte Smith (8-1) vs. Julian Erosa (22-5): A fun late-notice scrap between two Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series alums opens up the televised card. Washington’s Erosa already had a brief UFC stint coming off of the Conor McGregor-Urijah Faber season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but he has since made a name for himself as an active and willing fighter, winning enough to earn a return trip to the Octagon. He takes on the debuting Smith, an Ohio native now training out of Colorado who is in the same archetype as a lot of the UFC’s recent signees: an athletic striker who is still more potential than production. This should be a fun brawl and a close fight, but I favor Smith since Erosa is often willing to trade blows despite being defensively porous. That could do him in here. If Erosa goes against type and is willing to wrestle, he can probably get a lot done, but the pick is Smith via second-round knockout. ODDS: Smith (-180), Erosa (+140)Last Fights » UFC Fight Pass Prelims