FS2 Prelims
Welterweights
James Krause (25-7) vs. Warlley Alves (12-2)
Odds: Alves (-450), Krause (+360)
It makes sense that James Krause would do well as a trainer; the Missouri native's a jack of all trades, master of none type whose fights often see him cycle through a bunch of different ideas before hitting on works best against his opponent. And while alternating time between lightweight and welterweight, Krause has also quietly put together a four-fight winning streak over the course of the last three years. Krause takes on Brazil's Warlley Alves, who still has some prospect shine, even if he's not quite the killer he looked to be after winning season three of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil. Alves managed to win his first four UFC fights, but once he hit a certain level of competition, bad cardio issues began to rear their head, as Alves wound dump out his gas tank seeking an early finish and then have little left. Alves's last two fights have finally seen him pace himself en route to victories, though, even if the results haven't been particularly exciting. This feels like it could be a lukewarm split decision, even though both guys are talented; Alves is well-rounded enough that I'm not sure there's a particular weakness Krause can exploit, while Alves will probably keep things at a simmer in order to avoid burning himself out. I'll take Alves via decision, but this is a pick 'em.
Bantamweights
Cory Sandhagen (8-1) vs. Iuri Alcantara (35-9, 1 N/C)
Odds: Sandhagen (-240), Alcantara (+200)
Even at age 38, Iuri Alcantara is still hanging around as a perennial gatekeeper at bantamweight. Alcantara's game is all about unstructured athleticism and reflexes, so the UFC's used him throughout the years to take on promising prospects and see how they handle high-level athletes. It's worked out for Alcantara more often than not, but as that athleticism's waned, it's led to more inconsistent results; within a two-month span from this past December to February, Alcantara coasted to a boring loss against Alejandro Perez, then blew out Joe Soto in a little over a minute. Alcantara returns to take on Colorado's Cory Sandhagen, who's coming off an impressive debut win over Austin Arnett this past January. A fast and loose striker who also some wrestling skill, Sandhagen's an interesting prospect, but Arnett was also the perfect type of opponent for Sandhagen to showcase his wares, making this a big spot to see exactly where Sandhagen's game is at this early point in his career. Alcantara's inconsistent enough that I have little confident in this pick, but Sandhagen's wild enough that Alcantara can hit some big counters and win rounds by having the bigger moments of the fight. This might be the hardest pick on the card, but I'll take Alcantara via decision.
Middleweights
Andrew Sanchez (9-4) vs. Markus Perez (10-1)
Odds: Sanchez (-115), Perez (-105)
Missouri's Andrew Sanchez looked like a future middleweight contender after winning season 23 of The Ultimate Fighter, showing some knockout power to go along with an extremely strong grappling game. But 2017 saw Sanchez's career go off the rails, mostly due to cardio issues. A come-from-behind knockout loss to Anthony Smith looks better now that Smith is a light heavyweight contender, but a December loss to Ryan Janes is absolutely damning, as Sanchez gassed in even quicker fashion and got stopped by a much worse finisher. Sanchez looks to revive his career - and maybe keep his spot on the UFC roster - here against late-notice replacement Perez, who's a mildly interesting prospect. Perez's pre-UFC fights saw him mostly remain patient and wait for an opportunity to score big moments or a finish, but he had a miserable debut against Eryk Anders in December, showing about one round of decent grappling before tiring badly. A quick win over James Bochnovic at UFC 224 this past May did allow the Brazilian to showcase his skills, however. If Janes was able to finish Sanchez once he got exhausted, then anyone can, but after his performance against Anders, Perez might not have the gas tank to survive fifteen minutes himself. I'll take Sanchez to win the first two rounds, since he's obviously the more skilled fighter, and survive en route to a decision victory, but again, after the Janes fight, it's hard to have any confidence in him making it to the scorecards, even in what should be an easy win here.
Welterweights
Mickey Gall (4-1) vs. George Sullivan (17-6, 1 N/C)
Odds: Gall (-300), Sullivan (+250)
It seems like the notoriety for Jersey's Mickey Gall has cooled off, after making his name with 2016 wins over CM Punk and Sage Northcutt. Gall has some charisma and is a talented offensive grappler, but his loss last year to Randy Brown exposed a lot of holes in his game; Gall still isn't much of a natural striker, and Brown was also able to exploit a somewhat surprising lack of takedown defense on Gall's part. There's something there, but given that Gall only had one pro fight before the UFC signed him and how they haven't spent much time developing him, it's going to be an uphill battle for Gall to find enough success to hang on the UFC roster in the long-term. Gall takes on fellow Jersey native George Sullivan, a veteran grinder who had some surprising early success in his UFC career, but has had a rough last three years. Losses to Alexander Yakovlev and Niko Price raised some concerns about Sullivan having the durability to make his style work, and those fights sandwiched two failed drug tests, making Sullivan the first fighter to get flagged twice in the USADA era. If Gall is a relentless enough grappler, I think he can overwhelm Sullivan and get a first-round submission, which is my pick here, but that's more or less his only path to victory.
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