Odds: LaFlare (-150), Garcia (+130)
From just one look at him, you would know that Garcia is powerful. But his jacked-up physique comes with its limitations, cardio being the obvious one. While Garcia is more than capable of shocking bursts through space, he is not an outstanding scrambler. His brand of athleticism serves him best in straight lines, rather than with agility and sudden direction changes. The Tristar Gym rep’s fighting style is much the same. He has two distinct paths to victory: knocking someone senseless, probably early, or out-wrestling them. If these pathways are blocked, his lack of output (he lands a paltry two significant strikes per minute) and poor endurance begin to drag him down. Despite training at a premier gym with one of the best gameplan coaches in the game in Firas Zahabi, he has not been able to fix these holes. LaFlare also has a wrestling base, but his work at Bellmore Kickboxing has made him functionally effective in that phase as well. The southpaw throws short two to three punch combinations punctuated by knees or kicks. As with most lefties, his body kick is a favorite weapon against orthodox fighters. LaFlare just got dusted by Alex Oliveira, a fighter similar to Garcia in that he is stupendously strong, a quality wrestler, and a fearsome hitter. But Oliveira was able to keep LaFlare off-balance with his unpredictability and length, forcing LaFlare to traverse the wide space between them. LaFlare does not have a weak chin and Garcia will be hard-pressed to out-wrestle him. The New Yorker outworks and outpoints Garcia down the stretch for a decision victory.
Flyweights Magomed Bibulatov vs. Yuta Sasaki
Odds: Bibulatov (-370), Sasaki (+310)
Muscle for Chechen warlord and human rights abuser Ramzan Kadyrov, Bibulatov is nevertheless being given a favorable matchup on the rebound from his first pro loss. Despite getting pasted by John Moraga, there is a reason Bibulatov entered the UFC as a highly regarded prospect. The former WSOF champion is a powerful and kick-heavy bruiser who also wings a crushing counter right hand. But Bibulatov primarily does work on the ground, where he brings that thumping style to bear as well. He is crafty and suffocating in top control, always looking to pass while pummeling his opponent mercilessly. He squares off with Sasaki, an impossibly tall and lanky flyweight with his own penchant for ground fighting. The Japanese fighter is a flashy striker who isn’t afraid of mixing it up but falters when consistently pressured. While he struggles to make full use of his length to keep foes on the outside, it gives him great leverage in the clinch for the trips and throws he likes. Sasaki isn’t shy about scrambling with anyone, even if it’s against world-class grapplers like Leandro Issa, Wilson Reis and Jussier da Silva. He lost to all three, but his three octagon wins are all by rear-naked choke, and 11 of his 20 pro wins are by submission. Sasaki will be throwing up his legs and looking to create opportunities for himself, but he’ll get gradually beat up and dominated on the way to a decision loss.
Welterweights Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Luan Chagas
Odds: Bahadurzada (-110), Chagas (-110)
Chagas is a bricked-up welterweight who isn’t afraid to get into a brawl. Unsurprisingly, cardio has been “Tarzan’s” biggest bugaboo in three UFC bouts. The Gile Ribeiro student got into an absolute slobberknocker with Erick Silva -- also renowned for terrible conditioning -- and found that he was the more exhausted of the two in the third round. Chagas is a BJJ black belt, but he was submitted in that third frame by Silva, and he got outgrappled by Sergio Moraes. But still only 24 years old, “Tarzan” demonstrated the profound improvements one would expect from an athletically gifted fighter his age in his last bout with Jim Wallhead. Chagas calmly and forcefully outboxed “Judo Jim” before dropping and submitting him. Nearly ten months removed from his first UFC win, expect those strides to continue for the heavy-handed southpaw. Bahadurzada has only fought twice in the past four years due to injury. But the native Afghan showed few ill effects from his inactivity in wins over Brandon Thatch and Rob Wilkinson. Bahadurzada is a capable wrestler whose bread and butter are his hook combinations. He can throw them moving forward or backward, and they pack pop. But the Jackson-Wink transplant can run into problems waiting to counter with a big shot that never comes, or when he loads up and gets too wide on haymaker hooks. Yet he has never been knocked out in a career that spans 16 years. Still, I like the nine-year age “advantage” Chagas holds over the 33-year-old Bahadurzada, his superiority if the fight hits the mat and the fact that he lands nearly a strike and half per minute more. Chagas by decision is the pick.
Light Heavyweights Corey Anderson vs. Patrick Cummins
Odds: Anderson (-125), Cummins (+105)
Two wrestlers with bad chins collide, what fun! Cummins has the superior pedigree as a two-time D-1 All-American and U.S. National Team member, but Anderson is no slouch as an MMA wrestler either. Cummins likes to work position-first grappling while landing decent but unspectacular ground and pound. “Durkin” will have moderate success with takedowns if he decides to force the issue, but I don’t think that is the phase that decides this fight. Anderson is the better striker, so I give him an edge. He moves well, has tighter technique, and throws at a higher rate. But the man formerly known as “Beastin 25/8” has a terrible habit of getting badly hurt or knocked out in fights he was otherwise winning. His disappointing losses to Mauricio Rua and Ovince St. Preux come to mind. Cummins’ chin is slightly better. He rarely goes out cold, but his nonexistent head movement leads him to getting countered often, and worse, he freaks out badly. He either shoots a desperate, telegraphed shot or staggers away, inviting the knockout blow. And he wears damage cosmetically as poorly as anyone. Despite largely dominating Rafael Cavalcante with his wrestling, Cummins still looked like he had been in a car crash afterward. This is high variance and should have periods of messiness when one or the other is hurt, but I’ll go with the fighter who lands more and gets hit less. Anderson ekes out a decision.
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