Welterweight
Zak Ottow (15-5) vs. Mike Pyle (27-13-1)ODDS: Ottow (-250), Pyle (+210)
ANALYSIS: At 42 years old, this will be Pyle’s 42nd and final MMA bout after an 18-year career, as “Quicksand” has announced his plans to retire, regardless of the bout’s outcome. Even just three or four years ago, this would be an appetizing style matchup for Pyle: while the Tennessean has traditionally suffered against heavy hitters and powerhouse wrestlers, Ottow is neither. “The Barbarian” is more of a jack of all trades and a master of none, with just enough stylistic wrinkles to have success in the cage. He counterpunches well, is a solid takedown defender and can capitalize on opponent’s mistakes, but his offensive game lacks any real dynamism and he is prone to periods of inactivity. Pyle has always been at his best when he can clinch up, create scrambles, then find sassy submissions in the process, but in this case, Ottow is likely just going to maintain distance, throw leg kicks and look to crack Pyle’s aged chin on the counter. Even without natural punching power, that’s a possibility at this point given how much tread is off Pyle’s tires. Ottow by decision is the pick.
Bantamweight
Bryan Caraway (21-7) vs. Cody Stamann (16-1)ODDS: Stamann (-160), Caraway (+140)
ANALYSIS: In each of their last outings, Caraway and Stamann knocked off a touted prospect. Here is the problem: Stamann’s breakthrough performance against highly touted Frenchman Tom Duquesnoy happened in October, while the oft-injured Caraway has not seen action since he upset Aljamain Sterling nearly two years ago. In fact, Stamann is 6-0 since Caraway last fought, and given “Kid Lightning’s” extensive injury history and inactivity, there is no telling what we are going to get out of him. Stamann is certainly a more complete standup fighter than Caraway, but Caraway always manages to make the most of the weapons he does have, patiently stalking opponents, keeping them honest with low kicks and quick counterpunches and then looking to set up takedowns and scramble opportunities. Stamann is a fine grappler and chains together takedown attempts well, but Caraway is a far stouter wrestler than Duquesnoy, he is excellent at getting back up when taken down and excels at taking dominant positions in scramble situations. The fact that Stamann relies so heavily on kicking offense could be a major problem here. Even if Caraway cannot take him down clean off of a kick, he could just as easily dive into back control off the busted takedown as Stamann looks to pop up. Stamann’s striking strategy should dictate what this fight looks like; I expect some exciting, back-and-forth grappling exchanges, but Caraway’s buttoned-up approach and penchant for getting threatening positions makes me lean his way. Caraway by close and competitive decision is the call.
Light Heavyweight
Jordan Johnson (8-0) vs. Adam Milstead (8-1)ODDS: Johnson (-300), Milstead (+250)
ANALYSIS: Our opening contest has several curious, questionable elements to it. This is just Milstead’s third fight in two and a half years, largely due to the fact that he completely wrecked his knee in a February 2017 beatdown at the hands of Curtis Blaydes. Now he is cutting down to 205 pounds despite the fact that he was a good-sized, athletic 6-foot-3, 235-pound heavyweight. Meanwhile, the undefeated Johnson, a former University of Iowa wrestler, has said during fight week that he specifically wanted to fight Milstead so he would have an opponent that would stand right in front of him and throw haymakers. This may not end up being a disaster, but it is certainly not wise. While Johnson has a powerful, clubbing right hand, his standup game is nothing to write home about, and in actuality, he finds his striking success when his wrestling game gets his opponents worried about the takedown. While he will be at a three-inch reach disadvantage, Milstead is the much better boxer, working behind a crisp jab and always throwing his hands in varied combination. Johnson may be able to win a standup fight, but he will make things infinitely easier on himself if he goes to his powerful, grinding wrestling game and exploits Milstead’s shaky takedown defense. Johnson by unanimous verdict is the call here, but his boasting has me nervous.