Preview: ‘The Ultimate Fighter 24’ Finale

Featherweights

Gray Maynard (12-5-1) vs. Ryan Hall (5-1): Maynard just will not go away, not that I am asking him to, of course. It is not easy to watch a shopworn fighter struggling on against a sea of young contenders, and a late-career weight drop rarely inspires confidence in this analyst. I support Maynard’s choice to continue slugging, however, and he has a winnable matchup in front of him here. In his last outing, Maynard bested Fernando Bruno for two reasons. One, he may lack the chin, but he is still a respectably solid and dangerous striker; and two, Maynard can still wrestle with the best of ’em. It takes a Frankie Edgar to consistently get Maynard down, and Hall is no Edgar. Hall is a jiu-jitsu player of the kind not often seen in MMA, not to mention in the UFC. He absolutely dominated Artem Lobov with nothing but grappling skill, Imanari rolling and inverting his way to the Lobov’s back, where he camped out on his way to a comfortable decision. Unless Hall’s time at the Straight Blast Gym has dramatically changed his style, however, he will be hard-pressed to get Maynard to the ground. Even if he does, it is worth noting that Maynard has never been submitted as a professional. This looks like a weird one, and my prediction is suitably weird. The pick is Maynard by second-round TKO.

Bantamweights

Rob Font (12-2) vs. Matt Schnell (9-2): What a fight. Schnell entered “The Ultimate Fighter” as the Legacy Fighting Championship titleholder and comported himself well on the show. Font, on the other hand, got into the UFC the old-fashioned way, cementing his place in the growing bantamweight division with a pair of blowout wins. Font did not exactly look great in his fight with John Lineker, but he seemed to be the kind of fighter who, with enough experience under his belt, could overcome that type of style matchup. He is a little loose with his techniques but moves well and has great timing, as well as a whole lot of killer instinct. Font should be able to pick apart Schnell in a competitive striking match, but the ground game is more of a toss-up. Font does have a respectable wrestling and scrambling game, with a knack for headlock submissions, but Schnell is a seriously dangerous submission artist. He is one of those rare fighters who could compete at the elite level by fighting from his back, but in reality, he does not spend too much time there. The reason is simple: Schnell attacks submissions so aggressively that his opponents are forced to either scramble free or tap. Font should be able to fight strategically enough to avoid those scrambles, defending takedowns and using his reach advantage to rack up enough damage on the feet for a win. The pick is Font by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Kailin Curran (4-3) vs. Jamie Moyle (3-1): Curran seems a physical talent, but she has yet to deliver as expected in the UFC. A win over Emily Kagan in 2015 remains her only triumph in the world’s biggest MMA promotion, and though her run has not been without its bright spots, Curran has to be nervous after being dominated succinctly by Felice Herrig in her last fight. For Moyle, it is the perfect opportunity for a UFC debut. Moyle is a sharp grappler with smooth transitions, but her short MMA career has seen her do as much brawling as grappling. This style is made even more dangerous by Moyle’s build. At just 5-foot-1, she will be a full two inches shorter than Curran, with considerably smaller arms. Herrig schooled Curran on the ground, but Moyle is no “Lil Bulldog.” Curran does seem to be improving bit by bit, and her speed and dexterity will give her an advantage over Moyle. Curran by unanimous decision is the pick.

Middleweights

Josh Stansbury (8-2) vs. Devin Clark (6-1): Two relative newcomers meet in this middleweight clash. Clark was picked up by UFC President Dana White’s “Lookin’ for a Fight,” and he looked solid in his debut before being caught by the weird brawling of Alex Nicholson. Explosive takedowns are the bedrock of his style, and he does a good job of using the threat of those takedowns to land strikes. Stansbury can probably compete with Clark on the ground, but his striking is still very much a work in progress; and whether striking or grappling, Stansbury is simply slow, both on his feet and with his hands. Clark’s explosive pop gives him the edge over Stansbury’s slow and steady style. If his chin is as fragile as it looked in his last fight, however, he will need to watch out. Stansbury is down to swing. Still, the pick is Clark by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Elvis Mutapcic (15-4-1) vs. Anthony Smith (25-12): Mutapcic has yet to impress in the UFC, and that is a shame, because “The King” looked to be a solid prospect when the promotion picked him up in January. While Smith is just 1-1 in the UFC, his style looks to be a bad one for Mutapcic, who is at his best as a counter puncher; that explains his inability to finish a miserably broken Kevin Casey. Even on the reactive, however, Mutapcic runs into trouble. He throws too few combinations and frequently relies on head movement with the complement of footwork and an active guard. Smith’s persistent problem is his stamina, but nonetheless, he throws at a steady clip, packs respectable power and smashes away in the clinch. Mutapcic will have to show major development to win the first two rounds, and without it, he will struggle to punish Smith in the third. Smith by unanimous decision is the pick.

Lightweights

Dong Hyun Kim (13-8-3) vs. Brendan O'Reilly (6-2): Unfortunately, O’Reilly’s UFC career has not been pretty. A one-sided loss to Lipeng Zhang was followed by a move to welterweight and a hard-fought win over Vik Grujic, which was followed by a crushing loss to Alan Jouban. Now O’Reilly is back at lightweight, apparently keener to face the hard weight cut than any more welterweight knockout artists. Greeting him is Kim, whose own UFC stint has failed to return a win; however, “Maestro” has thrilled and impressed in both performances. Kim lacks a ground game, and that is a problem against O’Reilly, who tends to grind away in pursuit of the submission. Then again, O’Reilly has poor stamina at lightweight and has never impressed in the striking department. Like all of his bouts, this one could turn into an unlikely war of fists, but Kim is simply too dangerous for O’Reilly here. The pick is Kim by second-round TKO.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.