UFC Live 4 Preview: The Prelims

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Lightweights
Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira (14-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Nik Lentz (21-3-2, 5-0-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Lentz has not lost in 15 fights, including six UFC appearances, yet he still finds himself fighting in dark matches. Why? Because only one of those bouts in the Octagon -- a submission comeback against Waylon Lowe in March -- made for exciting, viewer-friendly consumption. The fact that he has knocked off some decent competition with effective grappling has won over few fans. Call it the Jon Fitch syndrome.

Olivera, meanwhile, is looking to rebound from his first loss, a kneebar-induced submission to Jim Miller at UFC 124. He was 14-0 heading into that December showdown, but Olivera remains an exciting and talented prospect, with highlight-reel potential.

The key factor in this fight should be how Lentz closes the gap to force clinches and wrest the bout to the ground. He is going to have to cross that moat to win this one, without getting caught by big strikes from Olivera, who unleashes knees and punches with gusto. Sucked into a cardio-draining, grind-’em-down-style fight, Olivera will have to stay patient, working for restarts, sweep attempts and submissions. However, guys like Lentz get knocked as “boring” precisely because they are good at limiting the other man from implementing his game plan.

Lentz might have a rocky moment or two, from a sharp counterstrike or out-of-nowhere submission attempt, but good pitching beats good hitting in baseball, and good wrestling does the same against the flashier athlete in MMA, much to the disdain of the fans.

The Pick: Lentz by decision.

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