Preview: UFC on Fox 30 ‘Alvarez vs. Poirier 2’

Tom FeelyJul 26, 2018


Lightweights
John Makdessi (15-6) vs. Ross Pearson (20-14, 1 N/C)
Odds: Makdessi (-165), Pearson (+145)


Pearson didn't become the UFC's next British star, as some may have hoped, but he developed into an entertaining striker with some notoriety that could be relied upon for solid performances. Pearson traded wins and losses for a bit before the wheels fell off his career in late 2016; a loss to former Bellator champ Will Brooks started a four-fight losing streak where Pearson never looked terrible, but found himself losing narrowly and unable to adjust. Thankfully, the fifth time was the charm, as Pearson was able to stop his skid against Mizuto Hirota in February, and he takes on Quebec's Makdessi, who went through his own turn from hyped prospect to journeyman striker. Makdessi came into UFC as a flashy kickboxer, but quickly hit a wall thanks to his lack of size and inability to wrestle. Makdessi traded in the same type of midcard action fights that Pearson has and has mostly held serve, coming off a win over Abel Trujillo to show he still has something left in the tank. That fight was a surprisingly low-output performance from Makdessi, but I'll still say he throws enough for Pearson to use the best part of his game, countering his opponent and getting into a groove. My pick is Pearson via decision.

Women's Flyweights
Alexis Davis (19-7) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (10-1)
Odds: Chookagian (-155), Davis (+135)


This is a sneaky important fight in terms of title contention, as these two former bantamweights are looking for their second straight win in the UFC's new women's flyweight division. Former Ronda Rousey victim Davis has been underrated throughout her career, but she overcomes a lack of athleticism with solid grappling skills and a commitment to activity that allows her to be opportunistic and either win rounds or earn finishes. Coming off a narrow win over Liz Carmouche, Davis takes on Chookagian, who's had some underrated success; Chookagian's basically a less athletic Holly Holm -- down to yelling with each strike -- and brings a consistent approach that forces her opponent to take her out of her game. This fight comes down to Davis' ability to do just that, particularly with wrestling, and I'll say the Ontario native gets enough done to take two rounds out of three, even if Chookagian evading some takedowns and picking Davis apart wouldn't shock me. My pick is Davis via narrow decision.

Flyweights
Dustin Ortiz (18-7) vs. Matheus Nicolau Pereira (13-1-1)
Odds: Nicolau (-255), Ortiz (+215)


Ortiz has settled into a niche as gatekeeper of the UFC's flyweight division, owing to his jack of all trades, master of none style that can exploit weaknesses in his opponents’ game. Two straight wins have given Ortiz a bit of momentum, and he now looks to turn back Brazilian prospect Pereira, who's quietly worked his way up the flyweight ranks. Pereira looked interesting coming off season four of “TUF: Brazil,” but had success shockingly quickly thanks to a decision win over John Moraga. But an alleged flagged drug test forced Pereira to wait a year and a half before capitalizing on that momentum. Upon Pereira's return, he looked good against Louis Smolka; he's still overly reliant on counters, but he was able to tag his foe with some impressive shots and jump into the fray using his crafty grappling game. Ortiz figures to be the more aggressive fighter here, but Pereira showed enough in the Smolka fight to suggest he can win rounds by having the bigger moments of the fight, so I'll take him here; a split wouldn't shock me, but my pick is Pereira via decision.

Women's Strawweights
Randa Markos (8-5) vs. Nina Ansaroff (8-5)
Odds: Ansaroff (-145), Markos (+125)


Markos was the breakout star of Season 20 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” A little-known prospect out of Ontario, Markos scored upsets over Torres and Herrig before falling to Namajunas. But since the show, Markos has been ridiculously inconsistent, alternating wins and losses while putting together a patchwork game built around her aggressive wrestling. Sometimes, Markos's unorthodox striking game clicks and she can control her opponents, but she just as often finds herself diving into her challengers’ offense. Hopefully, the better version of Markos shows up against Ansaroff, who despite still best known as the girlfriend of Amanda Nunes, is carving out a solid kickboxing game for herself. Ansaroff wasn't particularly good upon entering the UFC in 2014, but she's developed to the point where she got a big win over Angela Hill this past November. While Ansaroff's the more consistent fighter, even if Markos isn't completely on, the Canadian's wrestling should be enough to win rounds, if not completely lock Ansaroff down, and Ansaroff isn't enough of a finishing threat to make Markos pay if she gets over-aggressive. My pick is Markos via decision.

Lightweights
Devin Powell (8-3) vs. Alvaro Herrera (9-5)
Odds: Powell (-125), Herrera (+105)


It says something that Powell's UFC run is probably best known for an injury suffered outside of the cage, as he got some notoriety for reportedly rupturing his testicle in a training session with Joe Lauzon. But Powell's toughness is what got him here; he was signed by Dana White off of White's "Lookin' For A Fight" web series, and is basically a parody of what White looks for in a fighter, an over-aggressive scrapper whose regional record was dotted with comeback wins. Unfortunately, comebacks on the regional scene become beatings in the major leagues, and that's been the story for Powell thus far. He faces Mexico's Herrera, who has had little success coming off Season 2 of “TUF: Latin America.” Herrera is a power puncher that's a bit stiff, which made it surprising when he decided to drop down to lightweight for his last bout, putting him at even more of a speed disadvantage. This could be a fun, low-level brawl, and I expect Powell's durability and relative quickness to allow him to take a decision win here.