Preview: UFC on ESPN 9 ‘Woodley vs. Burns’

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Women’s Flyweights

Antonina Shevchenko (8-1, -145) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (13-3, +125): Chookagian became the latest victim of flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko in February but could get a measure of revenge with a win against the champion’s sister. Chookagian was doing well enough at bantamweight but became a legitimate contender after dropping down to 125 pounds and improving her game. While much of her career has been marked by a high-movement, low-power ersatz Holly Holm impression, Chookagian spent 2019 showing a bit more willingness to sit down on her punches and cause some damage. Of course, none of this did any good against Valentina, who was both the more practiced striker and the much better grappler, but some of that could serve her well against Antonina—the older of the Shevchenko sisters. Antonina does not have her sister’s physicality and underrated grappling game, but she is an impressive range kickboxer who can cause some damage in the clinch and has been slowly rounding out the rest of her game. This is a bit of an odd fight, if only because neither fighter looks poised to take advantage of the other’s weaknesses. Chookagian has had trouble when opponents can clinch and control her, something the reedier Antonina probably could not do even if she tried; and Shevchenko’s own struggles against pressure and takedowns should be a non-factor here. While this form of Chookagian may be a bit of a harder hitter, in a pure range kickboxing match, Shevchenko figures to be much more accurate, particularly due to her own ability to avoid what “Blonde Fighter” brings to the table. This probably will not be much fun to watch, as neither woman figures to overwhelm and separate herself from the other, but the pick is for Shevchenko to take the decision.

Featherweights

Billy Quarantillo (13-2, -155) vs. Spike Carlyle (9-1, +135): It took a while for Quarantillo to make it to the UFC, but he certainly made his debut count. He did not accomplish much on “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2015, but after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019, he put on a grappling clinic in his first Octagon appearance, absolutely dominating Jacob Kilburn on route to a second-round submission. He will look to follow that performance against Carlyle, who is looking to build off his own impressive UFC debut. Carlyle was a bit of a mystery man upon entering the UFC, as there was not much available footage of his fights. What little there was showed that he was a bricked-up featherweight who mostly gets by on aggression and physicality; as it turns out, that was all he needed to beat Aalon Cruz, as Carlyle quickly knocked him silly with some elbows in the clinch and finished the fight shortly thereafter. It will be interesting to see how far that approach can carry him, and Quarantillo should be a solid litmus test. He is an absolute gamer, but he is also more than willing to dive right into his opponent’s offense and try to fight his way back. This is likely a two-true-outcome fight: Either Carlyle quickly gets Quarantillo out of there, or Quarantillo takes over late and could get a finish in the process. The pick is Carlyle via first-round stoppage in one of the more interesting fights on the card.

Light Heavyweights

Jamahal Hill (7-0, -130) vs. Klidson Abreu (15-4, +110): Hill is one of the more interesting prospects to come off of the latest edition of Dana White’s Contender Series. A Michigan native, Hill is a long striker with the confidence and the ability to pick off his opponents and keep them at bay—a path he followed to great success against Darko Stosic in his UFC debut. There is probably a rough loss or two coming. Hill does not exactly have the most respect for what his opponents throw back, and Abreu has a chance at being the guy who alters that approach. A Brazilian who made his name fighting in Russia, Abreu has some decent grappling skills that are rarely seen, mostly because he is not a strong wrestler and relies on his opponents to take things to the mat. That is unlikely to happen in this one, and while Abreu is a ready and willing brawler, he is probably too small and too slow to catch Hill flush. The pick is for Hill to put in some solid rounds and earn a clear decision victory.

Flyweights

Tim Elliott (15-10-1, -170) vs. Brandon Royval (10-4, +150): It has been an up-and-down career for Elliott, who has been much better than his lackluster UFC record would suggest. It was mildly surprising when the UFC cut Elliott back in 2015—he had three straight losses, but all had come against some of the best flyweights in the world—but he was back in the promotional fold by the end of 2016, winning the all-flyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter” before giving Demetrious Johnson a surprisingly tough time in his subsequent title shot. Since then, Elliott has essentially picked up where he left off. His combination of relentless scrambling and awkward striking has given him some clear wins against the lower reaches of the division, but he cannot quite get over the hump against the flyweight elite. After two straight losses, Elliott has a surprisingly crucial fight here against an Octagon newcomer in Royval. At first glance, Royval has the type of record that does not look like it will translate well—there are a number of quick submission finishes, many by armbar—but the former Legacy Fighting Alliance champion has some interesting skills; and he has a solid chance at giving Elliott some trouble. Elliott’s size has always served him well, but Royval is also a gigantic flyweight. Plus, Elliott is also the type of fighter who constantly finds himself in and out of trouble with his aggressive grappling. In a bit of a flier, the pick is for Royval to catch Elliott in a first-round submission, though there is a chance for things to go awry if the UFC debutant fails to find that early finish.

Bantamweights

Casey Kenney (13-2-1, -270) vs. Louis Smolka (16-6, +230): Kenney was one of the more pleasant surprises of 2019. He stepped in on extremely short notice—in fact, he had fought just eight days prior—for his UFC debut against Ray Borg, and after winning a clinch-heavy battle there, he pulled off much the same trick to earn another upset win against Manny Bermudez to finish out the year. His 2020 campaign did not start off nearly as well, as Kenney was outpaced by Merab Dvalishvili in a loss in February. Now, Kenney aims to rebound. Smolka endured a stunning slide, as he went from flyweight contender to falling completely out of the UFC a few years back, but he has had a solid run since returning to the Octagon as a bantamweight. There is a certain frailty to Smolka’s game that was not there before—due to facing stronger opposition and the tough living that contributed to his slide out of the promotion—but he is still capable of some dynamic moments, and he completely took apart Ryan MacDonald in his most recent appearance. Still, Kenney looks to be the much stronger fighter, and his neutralizing clinch game should be enough to win rounds. It may not be all that exciting, but the pick is Kenney via clear decision.

Featherweights

Chris Gutierrez (14-4-1, -115) vs. Vince Morales (9-4, -105): This is a well-made contest, even if it may not be all that enthralling to watch. Morales was the victim of a stunning comeback from Domingo Pilarte on Dana White’s Contender Series, and while “Vandetta” has not suffered that kind of loss during his time on the UFC roster, it is emblematic of a frustrating career. Morales has a lot of tools, but he is a dedicated counterfighter who sometimes struggles to pull the trigger, making his game less than the sum of its parts. He gave top prospect Yadong Song some trouble in the third round, but that was too little too late, and his July loss to Benito Lopez was a classic example of the judges rewarding activity over effectiveness. He will look to rebound against Gutierrez, who has had his own issues with output over his three UFC bouts. Gutierrez was run over by Raoni Barcelos in his UFC debut but looked good in his sophomore effort, picking apart an opponent that was essentially a blank slate in Ryan MacDonald. However, Gutierrez’s next effort was not nearly as inspiring; he got the decision win over Geraldo de Freitas, but a lot of the effective offense he showed in the MacDonald fight dried up. Expect this to be a low-output staring contest that results in a split decision. The pick is Morales, and though the margins are razor-thin, he is probably the more effective striker and may actually do more.