Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Mendes vs. Lamas’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Dustin Poirier (16-4, 8-3 UFC) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-1, 2-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Longtime top featherweight Poirier moves up to lightweight and draws the dangerous Ferreira. Conor McGregor knocked out Poirier in September, but prior to that he had won three in a row against decent competition at 145 pounds. Ferreira made a real splash in his first two UFC appearances, submitting Colton Smith and knocking out Ramsey Nijem, but he dropped a decision to the rising Beneil Dariush in October.

Poirier is an offensive powerhouse in every phase of the fight. He is at his most comfortable striking at range and in the pocket and throws a monstrous right hook and uppercut mixed in with the occasional straight left. His left kick is also a dangerous weapon, which he likes to use to the legs and body after a punch or two as he steps forward. Defense is a substantial problem, though. Poirier is especially vulnerable to counterpunches while kicking at close range, because he has a tendency to drop his hands and leave his head on the centerline as he throws. As a wrestler, Poirier does his best work in the clinch with trips and hip tosses, which he mixes in with short punches. His takedown defense is not impenetrable, but it is very good, and the combination of his nasty front headlock game and scrambling ability makes it inadvisable to spam takedowns against him.

Ferreira is an excellent athlete and high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Grappling remains his best skill set, but he is solid elsewhere, as well, with an arsenal of side and round kicks backed up by crisp punching combinations at range. He is a surprisingly good wrestler, and his trips and hip tosses in the clinch are sneaky and effective. On the mat, Ferreira is everything you would expect from a grappler of his caliber. His guard is active and dangerous, he passes smoothly and owns an arsenal of topside submissions and he is venomous in transitions with back takes, chokes and leg locks.

BETTING ODDS: Poirier -170, Ferreira +150

THE PICK: I doubt Poirier will struggle in his first fight at 155 pounds since 2010. He is big, strong and fights very long despite his relative lack of height; and Ferreira is probably not the guy to really muscle him around. Moreover, Poirier is still improving noticeably from fight to fight. The American should have a substantial advantage on the feet, and Ferreira is probably not a good enough wrestler to take him down and hold him there for long. The pick is Poirier by decision.

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