Bantamweights

Erik Perez (14-6) vs Taylor Lapilus (10-1): Lapilus was known as a striker who thrived under limited French MMA rulesets, but he quickly proved himself worthy of the call when he effortlessly defeated his first two UFC opponents, including an impressive knockout of Yuta Sasaki at a UFC Fight Night in Berlin. Lapilus, a southpaw, uses a great deal of movement, stepping and feinting constantly to set up his straight left and kicks from long range. In close, he uses brutal short punches and elbows, which allow him to not only fight off takedowns but punish his opponents for attempting them, much like women’s strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Because Lapilus is a bit of a slow starter, he will likely have a tough time of it with Perez in the early stages of the fight. Perez keeps a frenetic pace and employs a wide array of attacks. In fact, Perez is the archetypal jack of all trades, master of none. He has solid clinch wrestling, decent submission grappling and effective muay Thai, but none of these skills would be considered transcendent. Perez’s key strategy is usually to mix together everything as much as possible -- a very Jackson-Wink MMA approach. However, I think Lapilus’ confidence in his chosen area of expertise will give him the edge down the stretch. The pick is Lapilus by hard-fought split decision.

Middleweights

Hector Urbina (17-8-1) vs Bartosz Fabinski (12-2): Urbina is a clunky striker, but he is not shy about throwing his hands and has enough power to make an ugly style work against defensively weak foes. He is experienced enough to hold his own but lacks technical defense. Urbina’s greatest strength is his submission grappling. He has solid top control and an excellent headlock series -- recall the high-elbow guillotine with which he finished Edgar Garcia in his UFC debut. Fabinski’s breadth of skills is actually even more limited than that of Urbina, but that may actually result in a more focused game. Fabinski is a grinding takedown artist, and he knows it, never spending more time at range than he has to and constantly looking to press his opponent against the fence and drag him to the ground. I have a feeling that with such a takedown-oriented game, Fabinski may very well find himself stuck in a few of Urbina’s headlock submissions; however, he would be by far the best fighter Urbina ever tapped out. The pick is Fabinski by TKO in the third round.

Bantamweights

Scott Jorgensen (15-11) vs Alejandro Perez (15-6): Jorgensen has competed with the cream of the bantamweight crop without ever managing to get a signature win to prove himself one of their number. Jorgensen is competitive with almost everyone he fights, but at 2-7 in his last nine fights, he is on the downslope. Perez, on the other hand, still has room to grow. He has two big problems that Jorgensen can exploit. First, he is a chronic slow starter, and Jorgensen’s relentless pace could give him a hard time in the first few minutes of the fight. Second, his takedown defense and positional grappling are spotty at best. Perez has been training at the American Kickboxing Academy since his UFC debut, however, so it stands to reason that his grappling will only improve. In Perez’s favor are his age -- despite nearly as many fights and years in the game as Jorgensen, the Mexican fighter is only 26 years old -- and his sharp counterpunching. Jorgensen has been dropped frequently of late, and even if he recovers well, that’s no way to win rounds. The pick is Perez by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Valmir Lazaro (13-3) vs Michel Richard Cunha dos Prazeres (18-2): Lazaro is a fascinatingly bizarre striker. Like Johnny Eduardo -- who may very well have contributed to Lazaro’s training at Nova Uniao -- Lazaro has an awkward, leaning method of head movement that sometimes leaves him susceptible to right hands. Fortunately, the former amateur boxer uses his defense aggressively, firing off counters after nearly every slip and pull. Prazeres is an archetypal Brazilian grinder, a fighter in the mold of Gleison Tibau and Francisco Trinaldo. He uses a smothering clinch attack to wear out his opponents and drag them to the ground. I expect Lazaro to fight off Prazeres’ takedowns and, much like Kevin Lee at UFC Fight Night 60, use his superior boxing and countering abilities to pick apart the smaller fighter from range. The pick is Lazaro by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Vernon Ramos Ho (3-0) vs Alvaro Herrera Mendoza (8-3): Ho reminds me a great deal of Caio Magalhaes. He is a heavily built submission grappler whose power and strength make up for a lot of the technical deficiencies in his striking and wrestling games. Fortunately, he lacks the bully mentality that has repeatedly held back Magalhaes. Despite being knocked down in the first round of his “Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2” bout with Wilmer Fernandez, Ho soaked up damage like a sponge and kept coming forward to take a hard-fought decision win. Mendoza is exactly the type of fighter who could get Ho out of there early. Herrera is nobody’s idea of a polished boxer, but he packs a punch and more often than not follows up with a short clinch knee. Ho’s durability is a huge credit to him, however. He is more versatile on the feet, with a powerful kicking game, and is far more diverse on the ground. The pick is Ho by submission in round two.

Lightweights

Cesar Arzamendia (7-1) vs Polo Reyes (3-1): This is almost guaranteed to be a wild slugfest. Reyes and Arzamendia are willing strikers, and both have gaping holes in their defenses, which turns every exchange into a tightrope walk. Arzamendia’s is the boxing approach. Working off of a stiff jab, he likes to step in with left hooks to the head and body, shooting right hands and grabbing quick clinch knees whenever possible. Reyes has more of a Thai style, mixing elbows into his combinations and frequently attacking with kicks to every available target. On the ground, Arzamendia is extremely aggressive with both strikes and submissions, but Reyes is more technical, staying active and transitioning from one advantageous position to the next on top of his opponent. In the end, Reyes seems just a little less vulnerable. He wins by submission in the second round.

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