Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Holohan vs. Smolka’
Specialty Selections
Tom
Breese looks like the real deal. | Photo: Gleidson
Venga/Sherdog.com
Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:
* * *
Legend
BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.
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LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.
SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is
predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was
always going to win, does the victor still have free will?
SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.
* * *
BEST VALUE: Neil Seery. Spotty as his record may be, “2 Tap” is a highly skilled fighter. Durable, tenacious and quick, Seery has everything with which Jon delos Reyes has struggled in the UFC so far, with the added distinction that he has never been knocked out. With odds as low as -140, Seery offers great bang for your buck.
LIVE DOG: Mickael Lebout. The numbers on Lebout are insane: Straight odds have him as an underdog to the tune of +400 and more. Ray is a solid fighter, but he has his flaws, and Lebout is a smart and well-rounded opponent who would be undefeated in the UFC were it not for a questionable decision loss to Sergio Moraes earlier this year. Lebout has never been finished, and Ray has a knack for getting caught in submissions, so you might find extra value on Lebout by decision (+660) or Lebout by submission (+1050). Either way, I do not expect Ray to win easily, and there is a real chance he does not win at all.
SURE THING: Tom Breese. They told me never to count on the outcome of a Cathal Pendred fight, but matchmaker Joe Silva is doing Pendred dirty with this matchup. Breese is bigger than Pendred, more skilled as a striker and far more skilled as a grappler. There really is no realistic avenue for Pendred to walk away the victor this time.
CAN’T MISS: Nicolas Dalby vs. Darren Till. There are quite a few other fights on this card more likely to end in a finish, or turn into a slugfest, but Dalby-Till is the kind of fight I love. Both men are very skilled and very intelligent. A closely matched tactical battle seems almost unavoidable, and I personally cannot wait to see these two kickboxers adapting back and forth as they struggle to figure out one another. It should be one enthralling game of speed chess, and I encourage you to watch it.
SMOKE BREAK: Norman Parke vs. Reza Madadi. I am actually quite fond of Parke, but he is rarely a highly entertaining fighter. Riding a two-fight losing streak, I do not expect him to take chances against Madadi, who almost certainly will not get much done unless he can drag Parke to the ground -- something better wrestlers have repeatedly failed to do. A slow-paced kickboxing match between so-so kickboxers? This maybe a chance to stretch your legs and discuss the main event.
Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment, and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.
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