Middleweights
NR | Joaquin Buckley (12-4, 2-2 UFC) vs. NR | Antonio Arroyo (9-4, 0-2 UFC)ODDS: Buckley (-210), Arroyo (+175)
Buckley’s year-plus on the UFC roster sure has been a rollercoaster. He came to the UFC as an interesting talent in August 2020. There was a lot of nuance to be worked out, but his ability to consistently throw volume and power without affecting his cardio put him ahead of the game compared to most similar prospects. However, there was the chance that Buckley could be undone by the UFC’s matchmaking: Kevin Holland was a tough opponent for a late-notice debut, and Impa Kasanganay figured to be a second stout test who could put “New Mansa” in a deep hole with a loss. Instead, Buckley turned the Kasanganay fight into a star-making performance, making his own break with a jumping spinning back kick that may be the best highlight-reel finish in UFC history. To its credit, the UFC jumped on the opportunity and immediately went about putting Buckley in some prominent and winnable fights. Add in that Buckley is the type of fighter who is willing to step in frequently, and he had fights set up against Jordan Wright and Alessio Di Chirico on turnarounds of less than two months each. The Wright fight went well, with Buckley scoring another brutal knockout, but the Di Chirico bout in January was where his momentum came to a screeching halt.
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Di Chirico managed to time one of Buckley’s blitzes with a head kick that resulted in an immediate knockout. Buckley has been off the radar since and honestly felt like a forgotten man in the last few months, though he could regain some momentum here against Arroyo. A Dana White’s Contender Series alum, Brazil’s Arroyo has not impressed much in his two UFC bouts to date. Arroyo is gigantic for the division and has some finishing skills, but a lot of his game seems to hinge around his ability to either intimidate or control his opponents, neither of which happened against Andre Muniz and Deron Winn. Each bout saw Arroyo’s opponent get him to the mat without much trouble, and the Brazilian quickly got tired as a result. Arroyo could crack the St. Louis native with a big counter, but Buckley’s relentless approach figures to get the Brazilian out of his groove more than anything else. Add in the vast cardio advantage that Buckley owns, and it seems likely that he can find a finish within 15 minutes. The pick is Buckley via first-round knockout.
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