Preview: UFC Fight Night 159 ‘Rodriguez vs. Stephens’

Bantamweights

Jose Alberto Quinonez (7-3, -145) vs. Carlos Huachin (10-4-1, +125): Like his castmates on the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America,” Quinonez has had a surprising amount of success in the UFC, though in his case, it has mostly happened under the radar. Since losing to Alejandro Perez in the final of that season’s bantamweight tournament in 2014, Quinonez has only fought once per calendar year; and while he has usually looked good thanks to his combination of speed, volume and pace, it has come on deep prelim bouts against the lower stretches of the UFC roster. Quinonez did finally secure a prominent fight in March, but that was mostly as a B-side to top British prospect Nathaniel Wood, who handled him rather easily and left the Mexican seeking a bounce-back win here against Huachin. A power puncher out of Peru, Huachin looked solid in his UFC debut in May, stepping in as a late replacement and giving Raoni Barcelos some trouble before getting beaten in the second round. For all his speed, Quinonez is there to be hit and Huachin figures to clock him, so the fight depends on how the former reacts to that reality. If he decides to start wrestling, he should be able to win rounds against Huachin, but if Quinonez decides to retreat and stay standing, his high-volume low-power approach figures to have little effect. Based off his last few bouts, the latter approach seems likelier, so the pick is Huachin via decision.

Featherweights

Kyle Nelson (12-3, -125) vs. Marco Polo Reyes (8-6, +105): Reyes was one of the success stories from Season 2 of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America.” He did not do a ton on the show, but upon hitting the UFC roster, “El Toro” quickly established himself as a knockout artist who brings guaranteed excitement; his 2016 bout against Dong Hyun Ma served as one of the best fights of the year. However, the Mexican’s gunslinger approach has hit the point of diminishing returns in recent years. His last four fights have all been one-sided affairs, with Reyes on the losing end of three of them. Surprisingly, Reyes has decided to make the move down to featherweight, where he will take on Canada’s Nelson. The first few minutes of Nelson’s UFC career were impressive -- he stepped in on late notice and won some early moments from Diego Ferreira before fading -- but a subsequent loss to Matt Sayles was disappointing. Nelson is a plodding pressure fighter who gets by on his size and attempts to maul people; the Sayles loss raised some questions about how well that will work against most of the UFC roster. The cut down to featherweight seems like a bad move for Reyes, as he will be large for the division, but being at even more of a speed disadvantage seems concerning for a boxer. With that said, Nelson is the perfect matchup for Reyes’ 145-pound debut, as the Canadian is both slow for the division and willing to charge forward with big looping punches in an attempt to get to the clinch. If Nelson gets his wrestling game going, he should be able to take advantage of Reyes’ poor grappling, but he is at a huge risk of getting starched before he gets that chance. The pick is Reyes via first-round knockout.

Women’s Strawweights

Angela Hill (9-7, -140) vs. Ariane Carnelossi (12-1, +120): If nothing else, Hill has been consistent. Since returning to the UFC in 2017, her fights have mostly played out the same way. Early on, she will adopt the house style of Alliance MMA, attempting to fight as a light-footed range kickboxer, but by the end of things, she will have tired a bit and become more of a plodding power puncher. It has given her a clear ceiling -- particularly after losses to Randa Markos and Xiaonan Yan -- but it has still worked well enough to keep Hill firmly on the UFC roster. Plus, she is good for a fun fight every time out. She has also been active in 2019, as she will have her fourth fight of the year here against Carnelossi. The Brazilian newcomer has put together a big record against middling competition, mostly on the back of her power and durability, as she is a plodding pressure fighter who looks to wing punches or take things to the clinch. This should be Hill’s fight to lose, given that she has already faced a much better version of this same style and acquitted herself well against Jessica Andrade. The pick is Hill via decision.

Flyweights

Sergio Pettis (17-5, -275) vs. Tyson Nam (16-9-1, +235): The rebirth of the UFC’s flyweight division should be good news for Pettis. His 2018 campaign saw him get the biggest win of his career, becoming only the third man to beat Joseph Benavidez, and while a subsequent loss to Jussier Formiga took some of the steam out of him, “The Phenom” was still well-positioned as a top contender while the UFC was tearing apart the division. Pettis saw the writing on the wall and returned to the bantamweight division, where he started his UFC career. However, his fight against Rob Font raised a lot of red flags. Unlike his older brother, Pettis is not a particularly dynamic athlete, and he just looked overmatched against a much more powerful hitter in Font. With flyweight getting a new life, Pettis is back where his physical liabilities will not be quite so harmful, and he draws a late replacement in Nam. It is good to see Nam finally get a UFC chance after well over a decade of globetrotting, and he has a solid chance in his debut. Pettis’ well-roundedness and lack of physicality makes for a well-matched fight since Nam has a similar jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none approach. Nam’s length could also give Pettis some difficulties, but the Wisconsin native still looks to be the much better built fighter. If this is a pure kickboxing match, Pettis should be able to hit the harder strikes and stay out of more danger. While a Nam win would not be a shock, the pick is Pettis via decision.

Light Heavyweights

Paul Craig (11-4, -125) vs. Vinicius Moreira Castro (9-3, +105): Both men are probably better utilized against different fighters, but this is still one of the more delightfully baffling matchups the UFC has put together in recent memory. The light heavyweight division is full of athletes and knockout artists. Here we have Craig and Castro, two unathletic grappling specialists who look to drag things to the mat and grab a submission. Craig has actually had a decent amount of success over the last few years, thanks to late miracle wins against Magomed Ankalaev and Kennedy Nzechukwu, while Castro has mostly just gotten smoked in his two UFC appearances. Craig is the quicker and more well-rounded fighter, but if this fight is just two guys looking to go right into the clinch, there is a decent chance that Castro’s sheer size might be enough to control -- if not overwhelm -- the Scotsman. Still, the “Bearjew” has more options and a better gas tank. The pick is Craig via decision, even if it is difficult to know what to expect at all.

Women’s Bantamweights

Sijara Eubanks (4-3, -260) vs. Bethe Correia (10-4-1, +220): Hopefully, Eubanks can now get her bantamweight campaign going in earnest. She surprisingly made it to the final of “The Ultimate Fighter” season that crowned the UFC’s inaugural women’s flyweight champion, but her weight cut for the finale was one too many, and Eubanks was instead hospitalized and pulled from the title fight. After some more weight issues, she was forced back to 135 pounds, where she lost to Aspen Ladd in her return to the division. Eubanks’ success typically depends on her ability to fall back on her grappling background, as she is still understandably raw on the feet. At flyweight, “Sarj” could rely on her comparative strength and size, but that is now a bit of a tougher ask up at 135 pounds. Correia should make for a fun opponent. While she has deservedly become a punchline due to her delusions of grandeur, she is underrated as a tough boxer and should give Eubanks some issues on the feet. Even so, Eubanks should be able to take this fight to the mat at will. The pick is Eubanks via decision, even if she will probably get hit in the process.

Lightweights

Claudio Puelles (8-2, -245) vs. Marcos Mariano (6-5, +205): A runner-up on “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America,” Peru’s Puelles is an interesting lightweight prospect. He has a bunch of tools at his disposal, but the concern is his mental approach. Martin Bravo’s pressure mostly shut him down in the tournament final, and Felipe Silva managed to back up Puelles and tee before the Peruvian pulled off a miracle kneebar for the comeback win. He will take on Mariano, who must have made it to the UFC as a favor to his friend Anderson Silva, as he did not even stand out on the regional scene despite his massive size for the division. If Puelles gets in his own head, he could make this tougher than he has to, but if he fights a smart fight and takes this to the mat, Mariano has little to offer. The pick is Puelles via first-round submission.