Preview: UFC Fight Night 154 ‘Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie’

Featherweights

Kevin Aguilar (17-1, -140) vs. Dan Ige (11-2, +120): This is one of the most interesting fights on the card, as it matches two featherweights with a surprising amount of momentum. After a run through the Legacy Fighting Alliance featherweight division earned him plenty of hype, it looked like Aguilar might have blown his chance with the UFC after a lackluster performance on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. However, “The Angel of Death” eventually got the call as a late replacement and has since made good on the chance, scoring impressive victories over Rick Glenn and Enrique Barzola. Those fights have given Aguilar a chance to show off what he does best, which is an impressively pared-down game mostly based on scaring off aggressive opponents with powerful counters as they move forward. That will make for a fun matchup against Ige, who dropped his UFC debut to Julio Arce but has put together three dominant wins since. Ige’s game is fairly straightforward, as he pressures forward looking for takedowns and an eventual finish on the mat. That means this fight will go one of two ways: Either Ige gets those takedowns, as wrestling defense appears to be the weakest part of Aguilar’s game, or that pressure makes him a sitting duck for Aguilar’s heavy fists. Aguilar can probably still stuff enough takedowns to keep this fight where he wants it, and he has the better gas tank, so he gets the nod in a hard fight to call. The pick is Aguilar via decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Ashley Yoder (6-4, -110) vs. Syuri Kondo (6-2, -110): After making a name for herself in professional wrestling, shoot boxing and kickboxing, there was hope that Kondo could stand out for the UFC as a Japanese talent, but it has been rough sledding thus far. Kondo has been a consistent pressure fighter through her three UFC bouts but has had issues against quicker athletes. Poliana Botelho blew through her in 33 seconds; Xiaonan Yan consistently beat her to the punch; and even her lone UFC win over Chanmi Jeon saw her get hit a decent amount. She badly needs a win here against Yoder, who has had the opposite issues, as she is a physical talent with some solid skills who has not pressed those advantages enough to be all that effective. Yoder has shown enough to hang with tough opponents like Mackenzie Dern, but unless she can get her submission game going, she just doesn't throw enough volume or have enough control to win rounds. This has split decision written all over it, with Kondo consistently staying active and Yoder having the bigger moments when she chooses to come out of her shell. Yoder’s submission skills could be the big worry for Kondo, but in a coin flip of a bout, it is probably worth taking the more consistent fighter. The pick is Kondo via decision.

Lightweights

Luis Pena (6-1, -360) vs. Matt Wiman (16-7, +300): It remains unclear where Wiman has been, but he is suddenly back in the fold. After beating Isaac Vallie-Flagg at the tail end of 2014, “Handsome Matt” pulled out of a subsequent booking against Leonardo Santos and was never heard from again, at least until this fight was announced over four years later. Wiman was a decent enough grappler then, and it will be interesting to see what he can do against Pena, a talented prospect who is still trying to figure out things. Pena was the obvious standout during his season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” due to his fighting skills and his “Violent Bob Ross” persona, but after he bowed out of that tournament due to injury, his proper UFC tenure has been quite frustrating. Pena is a massive lightweight -- he horrifyingly attempted to reshape himself as a 6-foot-3 featherweight his last time out -- but has struggled to build anything around a strong scrambling game. Pena’s striking is still fairly mediocre, as he gets hit way more than he should for someone so gigantic, and his grappling is mostly predicated on creativity and his physical gifts rather than any underlying technique. That size and the fact that Wiman has spent so long out of the sport makes Pena the pick via decision, but this should still be one of the toughest tests of his career and a fight that is far from a walkover.

Heavyweights

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (7-0, -225) vs. Allen Crowder (10-3, +185): Crowder is undersized and not an amazing athlete, but he is a perfectly competent heavyweight, which has been more than enough to succeed. That was on display in his last fight against Greg Hardy. Crowder just kept a cool head, picked his opportunities and wrestled where he could, and that was enough to outlast Hardy until the former NFL player lost his cool and illegally kneed him in the head. That has been most of the story thus far for Crowder. He may seem physically overmatched, but he can make things a grind and last longer than his opponents most of the time. On the other side, Suriname’s Rozenstruik enjoyed a successful debut against Junior Albini in February, but he is still mostly a power hitter and not much else. He may very well just clock Crowder -- this is the heavyweight division after all -- but Crowder’s wrestling should give him an advantage here, allowing him to take down Rozenstruik, cause some damage and wear him out. The pick is Crowder via third-round stoppage.

Women’s Flyweights

Ariane Lipski (11-4, -260) vs. Molly McCann (8-2, +220): McCann’s UFC debut went about as poorly as it possibly could. With her hometown faithful in Liverpool, England, behind her, she got taken down and submitted by Gillian Robertson without much trouble. Fortunately for McCann, things went much better the second time around, as she got to show off what she can do against Priscila Cachoeira. McCann’s game is not particularly subtle, mostly built around throwing power hooks, being tough and aggressive and not much else, but she can bite down on her mouthpiece and win a brawl as needed, which she showed in March. She will look to repeat that performance against Lipski, the Polish-Brazilian “Violence Queen” who came into the UFC with a bunch of hype, only to get handily beaten by Joanne Calderwood in January. In retrospect, Calderwood was a terrible matchup for Lipski, as she was more willing to throw from range and was stronger in the clinch, but neither of those factors should be a problem for Lipski here. McCann may tag her, but as the shorter fighter, she will need to get in close to cause some damage, and that should allow Lipski to show off her violent wares in the clinch. McCann could take a beating here, but she is tough as nails, so the pick is Lipski via decision.

Middleweights

Deron Winn (5-0, -300) vs. Eric Spicely (12-4, +220): The less said about Golden Boy MMA’s lone card the better, but the clear highlight was Winn getting a breakthrough win over Tom Lawlor in the co-main event. Almost every mention of Winn results in his being compared to Daniel Cormier, but it is an apt comparison. Even beyond the fact that the two have worked together, both are stocky former collegiate wrestling standouts who manage to strike with deceptive speed. After somehow succeeding as a 5-foot-7 light heavyweight, Winn cuts down to 185 pounds for his middleweight debut against Spicely. A UFC returnee and late replacement, Spicely had a decent first run in the UFC as an unathletic grappler, including a shocking upset of Thiago Santos, but he eventually washed out of the promotion in convincing fashion after three straight losses. Spicely is a fine enough fighter, but his set of skills, along with the short-notice nature of the bout, will probably just lead to Winn repeatedly tagging him. The pick is Winn via second-round stoppage.

Bantamweights

Andre Ewell (14-5, -120) vs. Anderson dos Santos (20-7, +100): Ewell made his promotional debut with a win over Renan Barao in September, but that looks less and less impressive with time. The wheels have only continued to fall off for Barao, and after Ewell’s December loss to Nathaniel Wood, there are also some questions about him. Ewell is a perfectly fine range striker at times, but Wood finished the job that Barao started in proving that Ewell’s grappling game is a gigantic liability and likely a fatal flaw in a division as deep as bantamweight. Ewell looks for a rebound against dos Santos, who parlayed a globetrotting career into a late-notice featherweight debut against Nad Narimani in November. Dos Santos was physically overwhelmed there, but he is a sharp offensive striker who can wrestle if needed, and that latter point in particular should be enough to run through Ewell. The pick is dos Santos via second-round submission.