Odds: Hooker (-355), Miller (+295)
Miller may be in the twilight of his career, but he remains a sturdy and reliable action fighter. He serves to test Hooker as the New Zealander aims to climb another rung of the lightweight ladder. Miller’s best skill set has historically been his deadly submissions, which he would aggressively pursue and snatch from anywhere. Alas, it has been four years since his most recent sub, a guillotine of Yancy Medeiros. Though his background is in wrestling, the New Jersey native is not an overwhelming takedown artist. He can still hit lovely, sudden reactive double-legs and catch kicks to dump opponents to the mat. Once on top, Miller opens up with elbows to bust up the faces of his foes. When they try to scramble back to their feet, he is there to glide onto their back.
Because he can struggle to force the fight to the floor, and his fading athleticism doesn’t allow him to capitalize on the small openings in scrambles he once could, the Miller Brothers MMA co-founder has to do most of his work on the feet. He is an able and willing southpaw kickboxer with what has become a signature low calf kick as his primary weapon. He will attack the body as well and back up his kicks with right hooks and left crosses in combination.
Hooker has graduated from featherweight brawler to lightweight sniper in the last year and change. Gone are the days when the six-footer would wade face-first into the pocket or backpedal with his hands by his sides when pursued. The “Hangman” does a much better job of setting distance and forcing opponents to try to bridge it. When they do, he meets them in interstitial space with sharp, straight punches. From long range, he will pot-shot or fire front and round kicks to the body and head. His wrestling has come a long way as well, as he stuffed and reversed powerhouse Marc Diakiese’s takedowns in his last bout. And he can use his long limbs to attack the necks of desperately shooting opponents.
Given their disparate trajectories, I understand the 28-year-old being the favorite, but I can’t abide this line. Miller may have lost three straight, but it was to a level of competition Hooker is only just approaching. The long-time veteran is still durable and skilled. Still, Miller is fading more quickly in fights, wearing damage more and more poorly. Hooker starts to take over down the stretch for a decision victory.
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