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Flyweights
#15 FLW | Tagir Ulanbekov (14-1) vs. #13 FLW | Tim Elliott (17-12-1)ODDS: Ulanbekov (-255), Elliott (+205)
Ulanbekov is certainly a flyweight to watch, though he is working with thinner margins than you would think. Coming from the Khabib Nurmagomedov coaching tree, the Russian has the skills you would expect, with a perfunctory striking game leading to some strong wrestling and grappling. However, between the slipperier grappling of the flyweight division and the fact that Ulanbekov is not a standout athlete, he has struggled to completely lock down his opponents and dominate his two UFC fights thus far. Ulanbekov is obviously talented on the mat, but Bruno Silva was able to give him a surprising amount of trouble, and Allan Nascimento was surprisingly able to take a scorecard in his split decision loss to Ulanbekov in October. Next up is Ulanbekov’s toughest test to date in Elliott, who might be the UFC’s all-time leader in terms of being better than his record. Elliott has piled up losses over two UFC stints, but it has come against a strong level of competition, and Elliott himself has been a particularly tough out, most notably taking a round from Demetrious Johnson at a time when the then-champion seemed unstoppable. In recent years, the book on Elliott seemed to finally settle on his not having the cardio to maintain his high-paced, scrambling-heavy style, enough so that he seemed on the verge of sliding out of the UFC once again. A move back to his native Missouri to train under James Krause seems to have paid a ton of dividends, as Elliott suddenly rediscovered the composure and control to make him a consistent three-round fighter. His recent winning streak was snapped by Matheus Nicolau in October, but Elliott is still close to the career-best form that has made him well-regarded for roughly a decade at this point. That also makes this a much tougher fight to call than it would have been two years ago, but the bet is that Ulanbekov is still the level of grappler that he can stay ahead of Elliott throughout the fight, even if Elliott figures to be both the better striker and difficult to control. The pick is Ulanbekov via decision.
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