Bantamweights
NR | Sean O'Malley (10-0, -380) vs. NR | Jose Alberto Quinonez (8-3, +315): It has taken about two years, but “The Sugar Show” is finally back in the Octagon. Between his charisma and exciting fighting style, “Sugar Sean” was one of the standouts of the first season of Dana White’s Contender Series. With the UFC promotional machine fully behind him, O’Malley racked up two impressive wins to kick off his Octagon campaign and promptly had his career derailed. After recovering from an injury suffered in his last bout, O’Malley’s been kept out of the cage by USADA due to similar issues that affected Jon Jones. Strangely, Jones has gotten the benefit of the doubt where O’Malley has not. At any rate, the good news is that O’Malley is still just 25 years old, as he looks to restart his career—fingers crossed—against Quinonez. Despite not winning the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America,” Quinonez looked like one of the top prospects to watch among his castmates, but inactivity has kept him from reaching his full potential. Style-wise, he has developed a combination of bouncy range striking and control wrestling that is a bit less than the sum of its parts. Against the lower reaches of the UFC roster, Quinonez can usually win his fights via one of those two phases, but the whole thing has just fallen apart against better competition. This is probably more of the latter for Quinonez. O’Malley is a solid grappler, so Quinonez will not win rounds with his wrestling, and it is an open question if the Mexican can even get that aspect of his game going, given that O’Malley’s combination of speed, power and reach is probably going to light up Quinonez on the feet. Rust is obviously a factor, but the pick is for O’Malley to hit Quinonez early and often on his way to a second-round knockout.Advertisement
Lightweights
NR | Mark O. Madsen (9-0, -220) vs. NR | Austin Hubbard (11-3, +180): Madsen’s UFC debut was one of the highlights of the Copenhagen card in September. As the 2016 Olympic silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling out of Denmark, Madsen was a natural choice to be featured on the card. He was somewhat surprisingly given the co-main event slot, but proved to be worth the risk, as he dismissed Danilo Belluardo in just 72 seconds. That was a bit of a surprise. Madsen had mostly been content to simply control his opponents by using his wrestling, but he showed some surprisingly brutal finishing skills on the mat against Belluardo. Hubbard represents Madsen’s next test, and he is a decent enough step up in competition, even if he is fairly nondescript as a fighter. Hubbard can do a little bit of everything, but he mostly beat Kyle Prepolec in September with his wrestling. That will not be an advantage here, and he is probably too patient on the feet to score the upset. There are still plenty of questions about how Madsen rounds out his game and his ability to develop a backup plan when his wrestling fails, but Hubbard does not appear to be the opponent to test those concerns. The pick is Madsen via decision.Middleweights
NR | Rodolfo Vieira (6-0, -800) vs. NR | Saparbek Safarov (9-2, +550): Vieira is the latest elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu player to convert to mixed martial arts and ply his trade in the UFC. Thus far, the early returns look good, as Vieira did well on the feet before tapping Oskar Piechota in his UFC debut. Add in the fact that “The Black Belt Hunter” is also a high-level athlete, and the only thing holding back Vieira is his age, as he is already 30 years old. He should be able to run through Safarov, who has been a fun but not particularly skilled brawler through his three UFC bouts thus far. Unless this cut to middleweight suddenly unlocks something for Safarov or the Russian’s willingness to foul and take shortcuts throws Vieira off course, this looks like little more than a showcase for the Brazilian. The pick is Vieira via first-round submission.Middleweights
NR | Deron Winn (6-1, -145) vs. NR | Gerald Meerschaert (30-12, +125): The less said about the Tito Ortiz-Chuck Liddell trilogy fight the better, but the highlight of that card was a breakout performance from a collegiate wrestling standout turned Daniel Cormier protégé in Winn, who earned an impressive victory over Tom Lawlor. Winn was picked up by the UFC shortly thereafter, and while he is a prospect with potential, he faces a crossroads fight shockingly early in his career. At first glance, the most notable thing about Winn is his miniscule 5-foot-6 frame, but that did not matter much in his Octagon debut against Eric Spicely. Theirs was a fun war that saw both men throw down for 15 minutes. However, his last bout—a split decision loss to Darren Stewart—raised just about every red flag imaginable. Winn missed weight, yet still had trouble controlling a physically larger and faster opponent, suggesting that he might somehow be both too heavy and too small for the middleweight division. For now, he looks to right the ship against Meerschaert, who has made a career out of upsetting more highly touted prospects by keeping things aggressive and trying to make his fights grimy. He has enough tricks that he might be able to steal a decision here, but he faces a lot of the same problems that cost him his last bout against Eryk Anders. He probably cannot outwrestle Winn; Winn is probably too durable to finish; and Winn is a much harder hitter. Meerschaert should succeed in making this fight an absolute mess, but it will be much harder for him to be effective enough to win rounds. The pick is Winn via decision.Finish Reading » ESPN+ Prelims
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