Middleweights
Trevin Giles (11-2, -130) vs. Antonio Arroyo (9-3, +110): A Texas native, Giles could badly use a win here at home to rebound from a tough 2019 campaign. He showed some interesting tools before taking off all of 2018, and his return was a lesson in minding what his opponents can do. Giles was winning a May bout against Zak Cummings while neglecting his defense, and Cummings eventually made him pay with a club-and-sub win in the last minute of the bout. Meanwhile, his August bout against Gerald Meerschaert showed off a baffling approach, as Giles decided to wrestle with the veteran grappler before getting unsurprisingly submitted. He will look to stop his skid against Brazil’s Arroyo, who looks to rebound from losing his UFC debut in November. A Dana White’s Contender Series alum, Arroyo is a massive middleweight who can throw power, but Andre Muniz managed to stifle him over three rounds with wrestling and constant pressure. The outcome of this fight depends a lot on Giles’ approach, and the American is a difficult fighter to peg at the moment. He should be able to just grind his way to a win and save his spot on the UFC roster, but if he opts for a striking match, Arroyo is just the type of fighter to make him pay for his lackadaisical defense. The pick is Giles via decision in a coinflip confrontation.Advertisement
Women’s Flyweights
Andrea Lee (11-3, -335) vs. Lauren Murphy (11-4, +275): This showdown between successful flyweights stands out as the most relevant fight on the undercard. Lee got rushed as a prospect during her days in Invicta Fighting Championships, but she has put together a solid run in recent years, winning her first three UFC bouts before dropping a split decision to Joanne Calderwood in September. Lee’s muay Thai background provided some hope that she would be an all-action fighter earlier in her career, but instead, it has mostly manifested in a powerful clinch game that lets her wear down her opponents for the win. After the loss to Calderwood, Lee looks to put herself back in title contention at Lauren Murphy’s expense. Murphy’s bantamweight career was mostly marked by her ability to lose close decision after close decision, but her run at flyweight has gone much better. Murphy has typically been another fighter willing to turn things into a grind, but her most recent fight against Mara Romero Borella showed off some new tricks. She mostly chose to box, and while Borella outquicked her for much of the bout, Murphy eventually ended it with a sudden knockout. That gives Murphy the best chance she is ever going to have in a matchup with Lee, but “KGB” is still in the driver’s seat for this one. Lee can be a bit plodding on the feet, but she also figures to be a physically stronger fighter whenever the two women tie up. This could be a grind and a return to Murphy’s habit of losing split decisions. The pick is Lee to take this on the scorecards.Welterweights
Alex Morono (17-5, -260) vs. Kalinn Williams (9-1, +220): Morono’s UFC career has been a pleasant surprise thus far. The Houston native is not much of an athlete and comes from a jiu-jitsu background, but he has managed to make his hay as one of the more exciting fighters on the roster—a fighter willing to throw down and attempt to drown his opponent under constant striking volume. It has been a shockingly successful approach; after treading water for a bit, “The Great White” has quietly put together a three-fight winning streak over the last year and a half. He will try to extend that run against a late replacement and UFC newcomer in Williams. A quick glance at the Michigan native’s record would cast him as the type of raw, high-upside prospect the UFC signs nowadays—he has some quick finishes and has not faced particularly strong competition—but he has a surprisingly patient and put-together game. It is a bit hard to calibrate due to his opposition, but he looks like a strong athlete who can hold his own as long as he can dictate a slow pace, as his striking form tends to go out the window once he turns up the aggression. That makes Morono a tough stylistic matchup. Unless Williams manages to turn this into a grind, Morono’s doggedness and commitment to action should eventually wear down and tire out the UFC rookie. The pick is Morono via third-round stoppage.Bantamweights
Miles Johns (10-0, -125) vs. Mario Bautista (7-1, +105): This bout between ascendant bantamweights is one of the highlights of the card. Bautista is less than three years into his pro career, but the MMA Lab product has a high ceiling and can already bring the excitement. Even if he was on the receiving end of most of the damage, his fight against Cory Sandhagen was three and a half minutes of pure action, and he followed it by winning a war against Jin Soo Son. He will take on a Dana White’s Contender Series alum in Johns, who has a well-put-together game as a powerful wrestler with some solid boxing. His debut was not particularly exciting, as his fight against Cole Smith was mostly a grind, but he should get a better chance to show his wares here. Bautista is at his best as an aggressive striker, which makes it imperative that Johns gets this to the ground. Not only is a standup battle a losing one for Johns, but Bautista’s consistent pace figures to tire him out. Bautista has not shown much in the way of high-level takedown defense, so Johns can probably make his game plan work, but it is a thin margin and he will probably have to survive some late trouble. The pick is Johns via decision.Finish Reading » UFC Fight Pass Prelims
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