Light Heavyweights
#11 LHW | Johnny Walker (17-3, -150) vs. #7 LHW | Corey Anderson (12-4, +130): It is the sign of a stacked card that this bout -- which may determine the next challenger for Jon Jones -- is relegated to the featured prelim. Walker has come out of absolutely nowhere to become the hottest contender in the light heavyweight division, thanks to his combination of an exciting fighting style and a willingness to always keep things weird. Walker figured to be a fun knockout artist when the UFC picked him up off Dana White’s Contender Series in Brazil, but his success has come as a shock. After winning a clinch battle with Khalil Rountree, Walker knocked out Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunov in a combined 51 seconds. Thus far, the only man who has managed to hurt Walker inside of the Octagon is himself, as he separated his shoulder while celebrating his win over Cirkunov. Walker’s success does not feel like it is sustainable, but in a flawed division like light heavyweight, his combination of athleticism and diversity of unorthodox strikes might just be able to work. He will take on Anderson, who has had the exact opposite approach, slowly developing over his five-plus years on the UFC roster to become a technically practiced fighter. A powerful wrestler, Anderson won a weak season of “The Ultimate Fighter” just three fights into his pro MMA career and essentially learned on the job, suffering a bunch of disappointing losses in the process. A high-volume, low-power approach may work at the lower classes, but developing that approach against the harder hitters at 205 pounds has led Anderson to a bunch of fights where he has won until he lost, suffering late knockouts against the likes of Gian Villante and Ovince St. Preux. However, things finally clicked into place for Anderson in 2018 on the heels of that St. Preux loss. He dominated fellow wrestler Patrick Cummins, scored the biggest win of his career against Glover Teixeira and then handled Ilir Latifi -- the exact type of power puncher who has typically given him fits -- without much difficulty to cap off the year. Since then, he has seemingly been in the promotional doghouse due to turning down a few fights, but he gets a huge opportunity here to play spoiler and affirm that he has finally gotten over the prospect hump. A pretty clear dynamic exists: Either Walker scores a knockout, likely via something absurd, or Anderson turns this into a grind and derails the hype train. A few years ago, this was exactly the type of fight that Anderson would lose, and while the concern that he might get starched has not exactly gone away, he has been judicious enough about staying defensive and mixing in his wrestling at the right times. Walker’s takedown defense did not look great during his pre-UFC career, and while it has not been tested much inside the Octagon, a lot of that has to do with his competition, as Rountree and Ledet are not takedown threats, and Cirkunov is an even chinnier grappler than Anderson has historically been. Walker should remain threatening until the fight is over, but the pick is for Anderson to ruin the party and win a clear decision.Advertisement
Featherweights
#12 FW | Shane Burgos (12-1, -250) vs. NR | Makwan Amirkhani (15-3, +210): With his win over Cub Swanson in May, Burgos finally got some notice as the next great talent to come out of the Empire State. He is not much of a power puncher, but save for a 2018 bout against fellow rising featherweight Calvin Kattar, Burgos has been able to outbox each of his opponents without much trouble before going punch for punch with Swanson. However, “Hurricane Shane” gets a bit of a different look this time around against Makwan Amirkhani, who is finally becoming a concern at featherweight. Amirkhani looked like a future star after his 2015 debut -- an eight-second knockout of Andy Ogle -- but injuries and inactivity have made the Finn’s journey through the featherweight ranks a good bit slower than expected. That debut was also a bit of false advertising -- Amirkhani has typically been much more of an aggressive wrestler -- but he has become more comfortable on the feet from fight to fight, even if he is still miles behind Burgos. This should be Burgos’ fight to lose. Amirkhani may have fallen a bit too much in love with his striking game, and while getting some rounds in is all well and good, this fight in particular is one where he should look to take things to the mat early and often. Beyond that, Burgos has shown strong enough takedown defense that he can probably keep things on the feet, even if Amirkhani is going to be his stoutest test to date in that aspect. Given Amirkhani’s toughness, this could go to a decision, but the call is for Burgos to pour things on and eventually get a third-round stoppage.Middleweights
#13 MW | Edmen Shahbazyan (10-0, -125) vs. #11 MW | Brad Tavares (17-5, +105): Upon his entry into the UFC system, it would have been easy to write off Shahbazyan as a product of hype. Going into Dana White’s Contender Series, Shahbazyan’s record was all quick finishes over fighters with losing records, and he seemed like someone who was getting a shot because Ronda Rousey is his manager rather than any sort of merit. Even if Shahbazyan took an easier path to the UFC than most, he has completely redeemed himself by taking advantage of the opportunity, as he has quickly become one of the most interesting prospects in the middleweight division. Save for a grinding win over Darren Stewart -- which at least showed Shahbazyan’s ability to wrestle and last for three rounds -- he has basically picked up where he left off against actual competition, winning his DWCS bout in under a minute and finishing Charles Byrd and Jack Marshman in a combined 110 seconds. Now it is time for a clear step up to another tier, as “The Golden Boy” draws an erstwhile vet. Tavares has hung around between the Top 10 and Top 20 of the division for a good while, racking up decision win after decision win with a well-rounded game. There was some hope that his 2018 knockout of Krzysztof Jotko -- the Hawaiian’s first finish in seven years -- would finally serve as a turning of the corner, but instead, Tavares’ last bout saw him slowly lose to Israel Adesanya as Adesanya’s first big test. On paper, Tavares should fare better this time around, even if Shahbazyan is still a bit of a mystery box. Thus far, Robert Whittaker has been the only man able to spark Tavares, and Tavares has historically proven to be strong in the clinch if that is Shahbazyan’s backup plan. Either way, this fight should provide a ton of answers about Shahbazyan. The pick is Tavares via decision.Heavyweights
NR | Jairzinho Rozenstruik (8-0, -155) vs. NR | Andrei Arlovski (28-18, +135): Even by heavyweight standards, Arlovski has had a long and winding career. He was essentially written off after a 2009-11 string of brutal knockout losses, but “The Pitbull” eventually made his way back to the UFC and even back to title contention after a shocking four-fight winning streak upon his return. Since then, things have not gone nearly as well. While the brutal finishes seem to be a thing of the past, Arlovski has won only three of his last 12 bouts. The odd thing is that Arlovski continues to evolve this late into a successful career. He has shown an ability to mix in some wrestling every so often, and his last bout -- a rare win against Ben Rothwell -- saw Arlovski show off some of the most diverse striking of his career. It remains to be seen if any of that will help him against Rozenstruik, who is coming off a nine-second knockout of Allen Crowder and is historically the type of huge puncher that has put out Arlovski’s lights. The Arlovski of a few years ago would have surely gotten finished, but the former heavyweight champion actually has a path to victory this time around, as Rozenstruik’s wrestling and ground game are absolutely abysmal. For as long as this fight is on the feet, Arlovski is in danger of being knocked out, but he has shown the ability to fight a smart fight, and Rozenstruik is so one-dimensional that the Belarusian is worth the flier. The pick is for Arlovski to grind out an ugly decision win.Finish Reading » ESPN+ Prelims
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