Women’s Strawweights
Tatiana Suarez (7-0, -1100) vs. Nina Ansaroff (10-5, +700): After beating Miesha Tate for the bantamweight championship at UFC 200, Amanda Nunes proclaimed that her longtime girlfriend would be a future champion down at 115 pounds. At the time, it seemed like a sweet sentiment but little else, as Ansaroff had lost both of her UFC bouts to date, but shockingly, she has not lost since and might find herself one win away from a title shot. Ansaroff was not particularly good when the UFC signed her, but she has honed her kickboxing and her wrestling defense to the point that she has managed to eke out wins over Randa Markos and Claudia Gadelha. Suarez might be an even tougher challenge. A 2012 Olympic hopeful in wrestling who had those dreams derailed due to thryoid cancer, Suarez pivoted to MMA and has quickly become a buzzsaw in her time on the UFC roster. Her striking game still does not appear to be particularly effective, but that has not mattered, as she has encountered little resistance to her dogged wrestling game. Carla Esparza is one of the other best wrestlers in the division, and Suarez absolutely destroyed her in her wheelhouse on her way to a third-round stoppage. Ansaroff has proven shockingly slippery against better wrestlers in her last two bouts, but Markos and Gadelha are inconsistent and broken in a way Suarez is not. Suarez knows her strengths and just looks to get after them. If Ansaroff overachieves again and finds her way out of trouble on the mat, this is her fight to lose, but it is much likelier that she becomes another speed bump on Suarez’s run towards the title. The pick is Suarez via second-round submission.Advertisement
Bantamweights
Aljamain Sterling (17-3, -130) vs. Pedro Munhoz (18-3, +110): There were a few hiccups along the way, but it looks like Sterling is finally cashing in on all of his prospect hype. The talented New Yorker fell into a classic trap. At his best using a dominating grappling game, Sterling started to fall in love with his striking. That was fine enough for a bit, as Sterling’s lanky frame allowed him to keep opponents at bay, but against better opposition, his inefficient style left him gassed late in fights and sent him to some disappointing decision losses. Sterling looked improved in his next few fights, but a 67-second knockout loss to Marlon Moraes at the end of 2017 seemed like it might close his championship window for good. However, Sterling has rebounded and looked as good as ever, focusing on that strong grappling as needed while being much more effective on the feet. The Sterling of 2017 would not have been able to use his range and pick apart Jimmie Rivera like the “Funk Master” did in February. At bantamweight, there is always another tough contender next on the docket, and this time around, Sterling has to face Munhoz. A former Resurrection Fighting Alliance champion, Munhoz has refined his skills over the years but still uses the same relative blueprint, relying on constant pressure and ridiculous durability to force his opponents into mistakes, usually ending with the Brazilian locking up one of the tightest guillotine chokes in the game. All of that was on display in his last bout against Cody Garbrandt. While the whole post-fight narrative was about how Garbrandt lost his cool and decided to brawl with Munhoz, it remains undersold that the Brazilian managed to eat punch after punch from one of the hardest hitters in the sport and show little effect. This is an absolutely fascinating fight, particularly due to the degree to which Munhoz’s dangerous submission skills could take Sterling’s wrestling off the table. Sterling might still be skilled enough to survive on the mat with Munhoz, but he should also be able to win this on the feet. Munhoz is not far removed from a loss to John Dodson, and Sterling should be able to use both his speed and range to play matador for 15 minutes. It will be a tense fight throughout, but the pick is Sterling via decision.Women’s Strawweights
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-4, -145) vs. Alexa Grasso (10-2, +125): At some point, the UFC probably wished Grasso could be the Mexican version of Paige VanZant, and by that standard, things have been a success. Grasso has been a similarly frustrating prospect. she came in with a ton of hype owing to her fun fight style and undefeated run through Invicta Fighting Championships, and after an impressive debut win over Heather Clark, the UFC followed the VanZant blueprint by pitting Grasso against Felice Herrig in her sophomore bout. However, this came at a point where Herrig had figured out things mentally and was in the middle of a resurgence, so Grasso instead coasted to a decision loss. It was that fight that showed a huge flaw in Grasso’s game, typical of fighters who start young. She seems to think in terms of hanging tough in exchanges rather than winning the entire fight, so she is more than content to take her eye off the ball and start losing rounds. Grasso rebounded with a win over Randa Markos, but the last year and a half has been rough. Tatiana Suarez absolutely ran through her on the mat, and injuries have mostly kept Grasso outside the cage. Rather than a soft landing, she gets a tough opponent Kowalkiewicz, a perennial gatekeeper. Since losing her title fight to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Kowalkiewicz has been figured out a bit. While she applies constant pressure, her movement is somewhat plodding and herky-jerky; and opponents seem to have finally learned to stay out of Kowalkiewicz’s deceptively strong clinch. Grasso has not proven to be enough of a high-IQ fighter to have much faith in her to win the right fight. Kowalkiewicz’s pressure will probably keep Grasso focused on exchanging, and the Lobo Gym rep seems more than willing to dive into the clinch -- a trait that will only cause problems in this bout. A Grasso win would prove she has finally turned a corner, but the pick is Kowalkiewicz via decision.Featherweights
Calvin Kattar (19-3, -165) vs. Ricardo Lamas (19-7, +145): A November win over Darren Elkins served as a nice comeback for Lamas. After losing to Jose Aldo in 2014, Lamas hung around the fringes of the title picture for a few years, but a knockout loss to Josh Emmett and a decision loss to Mirsad Bektic raised some concerns that “The Bully” had fallen off for good. In his last bout, Lamas managed to lay down a beating in a reminder that he can still pour on the damage and win rounds, even without relying on the big singular opportunities that have marked the best wins of his career. However, it is right back to another tough fight for the Chicago native, as Kattar steps in to fight on Lamas’ home turf. Kattar has been a pleasant surprise since his 2017 debut win over Andre Fili, as he is a technically consistent boxer who has managed to apply and stave off pressure as needed. Lamas has avenues to victory, particularly if he decides to chase after his wrestling, but this will likely be a striking match. In that case, Kattar can probably pick apart Lamas without making a big enough mistake for him to get the knockout. The pick is Kattar via decision.Last Fights » UFC Fight Pass Prelims
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