Flyweights
Sergio Pettis (17-3) vs. Jussier da Silva (21-5): When this fight was first announced, it looked like an obvious No. 1 contender’s bout, given that these two were basically the last men left for Demetrious Johnson to beat at flyweight. Instead, Henry Cejudo, who has recently beat both men, went ahead and won the flyweight title. Whoops. Pettis is the opposite of his brother, favoring strong fundamentals over dynamic athleticism, and it has been nice to see him finally cash in on the prospect hype he had when he entered the UFC. After suffering some damaging losses early on, Pettis worked his way up the ranks to become a well-rounded contender. A win over Joseph Benavidez put him in the catbird seat for the next shot at Johnson, but again, Cejudo winning the belt changes everything. Meanwhile, Da Silva has been a consensus top flyweight ever since the UFC introduced the division, but he keeps falling just short of a title shot. In fact, each of the four men to beat “Formiga” in the UFC have subsequently gotten a title fight. Da Silva’s an excellent submission artist but is not a great athlete, so he has had some issues fully getting going against the cream of the flyweight crop. I still favor him here. Pettis’ takedown defense remains his main weakness, and while it looked much-improved against Benavidez, there were still some rough patches. My main concern is that “Formiga” can be too passive unless he feels threatened, so he could just lose a lukewarm striking match. However, da Silva by decision is the pick. ODDS: Pettis (-155), Formiga (+135)Welterweights
Vicente Luque (13-6-1) vs. Jalin Turner (7-3): I will never complain about seeing Luque fight, but I’m not sure what we’re doing here. Luque’s an interesting prospect with some clear flaws. He throws heat with every strike he throws and supplements that with a crafty submission game, but he often exhausts himself throwing too many power strikes too many times. Still, he has six finishes in eight UFC fights and is surprisingly still just 26 years old. He takes on California’s Turner, who didn’t earn a contract outright on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series but still makes his debut here. Turner’s a giant, dynamic striker and an interesting prospect, but he’s relatively untested and in over his head here, particularly since he’s a career lightweight; he’ll still be the bigger man here. Turner could make this fun, especially since Luque’s big, single-strike approach on the feet isn’t likely to overwhelm him early. However, the Brazilian should be able to hit that knockout shot over the course of the fight. The pick is Luque via second-round KO. ODDS: Luque (-800), Turner (+550)Women’s Bantamweights
Aspen Ladd (6-0) vs. Tonya Evinger (19-6): Besides being a good fight, it’ll be nice to see both of these fighters in the cage again, since neither has fought since their 2017 promotional debuts. The UFC waited forever to sign Evinger due to her personality clashing with promotional brass, but she finally got the call when the UFC needed someone to face Cristiane Justino at UFC 214. Evinger did eventually succumb to “Cyborg” in the third round but did a better job of surviving than most expected, despite lacking athleticism and being best served as a grappler. Since then, injuries and the reshuffling of cards has left Evinger without a fight, but the former Invicta champ finally returns to take on a top prospect in Ladd. A baby-faced 23-year-old, Ladd’s unassuming outside the cage, but inside of it, she’s a consistent pressure fighter with a frighteningly strong top game, as she showed with some ground-and-pound in her debut win over Lina Lansberg. Ladd’s main problem thus far has been making weight. She has had three slated UFC bouts thus far, and two have been scrapped due to weight-cutting issues. Assuming this makes it to the cage, I expect this to be Ladd’s first loss. For better or worse, Ladd looks to pressure opponents into the clinch, which looks like a stylistic sitting duck for Evinger to start getting takedowns and work her excellent grappling. Evinger is 37, so there’s always the chance this is when age finally catches up to her, but she is the pick to take a one-sided decision. ODDS: Ladd (-160), Evinger (+140)Lightweights
Scott Holtzman (11-2) vs. Alan Patrick Silva Alves (15-1): Tennessee’s Holtzman is a perfectly fine fighter, even if he shouldn’t be considered much of a prospect anymore. A former hockey player best known for his love of hot sauce, Holtzman’s a solid athlete and well-schooled, but his game can be a bit rote. Everything looks good, but Holtzman doesn’t have a ton of dynamism, so if his opponent knows what to expect, he shouldn’t be too surprised, particularly since Holtzman can also be quite hittable when he’s on offense. Holtzman takes on Brazil’s Alves, who has quietly won five out of six UFC fights but has struggled to find any momentum, mostly due to a career dotted with layoffs. His fighting style has not helped, either. While Alves has the appearance of a dynamic athlete, his last few bouts have seen him rely on a control wrestling game to try and grind out a decision win. Holtzman’s defensive wrestling has always been an issue, so Alves should be able to do that again here. The pick is Alves via decision. ODDS: Patrick (-255), Holtzman (+215)Last Fights » UFC Fight Pass Prelims