Women’s Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern (5-0) vs. Ashley Yoder (5-3)ODDS: Dern (-335), Yoder (+275)
ANALYSIS: Just 20 months into Dern’s pro career, the two-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion makes her awaited Octagon debut; and the UFC has certainly matched her charitably in this case. In Dern’s last two bouts, submission wins over Mandy Polk and Kaline Medeiros, the 24-year-old grappling ace has shown a willingness to stand and exchange with her opponents, but her striking form remains awkward and mechanical, even if she appears to have some power in her hands. Yoder is a much more experienced and technical striker, but she is not a standup specialist by trade. Her kickboxing is standard, rote and unremarkable, despite the fact that by virtue of being able to jab and throw straight punches, she should have some standup success against Dern. Where Yoder really excels is getting to the clinch, taking dominant positions on the floor and hunting for submissions. That simply is not going to fly against Dern. It remains to be seen if the tutelage of John Crouch at the MMA Lab in Arizona will flesh out Dern’s game and turn her into a full-fledged mixed martial artist, but in the interim, she is getting preferential matchmaking here against a fighter whose greatest strength is the same as Dern’s -- and several standard deviations poorer. If anything, Dern’s real opponent here figures to be the scale, as she is returning to 115 pounds after missing the strawweight limit twice in her career already. Dern may take some time to warm up and look awkward in the process, but she will most certainly exploit Yoder on the floor once it gets there. Dern by second-round submission is the pick.
Bantamweight
John Dodson (19-9) vs. Pedro Munhoz (15-2)ODDS: Dodson (-165), Munhoz (+145)
ANALYSIS: This fight was supposed to take place a month ago at UFC Fight Night 125 in Belem, Brazil, but Munhoz came in at 140 pounds and Dodson declined to fight. At this point, last-minute cancelations and re-bookings are part of the UFC’s “new normal,” so at the risk of you thinking I am a lazy son of a gun, I will invoke the Will Brooks-Nik Lentz clause and allow myself to copy-paste what I wrote about this fight just a few short weeks ago. With that said, I am fully aware of the fact that I drastically blew that particular pick. Your mockery is only appropriate. Dodson remains one of the most freakish athletes I have ever seen in the sport, blessed with shocking athleticism, balance, speed, quickness and natural hitting power. His left hook is one of the best punches in MMA, and he can throw flying Liu Kang kicks on much taller opponents. However, “The Magician” often has hot starts and retreats into passivity; the 33-year-old Jackson-Wink MMA product remains his own worst enemy. Munhoz is the same story. While he has only lost to elite bantamweights like Raphael Assuncao and Jimmie Rivera, he absorbs 5.53 significant strikes per minute, which is simply not an acceptable rate for such a skilled fighter. He walks into the pocket and just starts kicking at his opponents, hoping to get a beat on them. His move to American Top Team appears to have helped his focus and execution in the cage; he has won four in a row since the Rivera loss and enters his match with Dodson off of a beautiful performance against Rob Font in October. Munhoz’s past against left-handed punching is centrally troubling here, whether it means a jab from a righty or power shots from a lefty. Dodson’s left power strikes are not going to be friendly if the American applies any real heat to a charging “Young Punisher.” Dodson has never been finished in his career and does so much defensive circling and resetting that Munhoz is not going to have the wild up-and-down brawl he had with Font. That dynamic may slow Munhoz’s usual forward pressure just enough to make him chase the elusive Dodson, who can land the more damaging shots to the defensively shoddy Brazilian and overcome his own strategic woes to win a back-and-forth decision.
Lightweight
Beneil Dariush (14-3-1) vs. Alexander Hernandez (8-1)ODDS: Dariush (-375), Hernandez (+285)
ANALYSIS: Hernandez enters this fight on just over a week’s notice, subbing in for an injured Bobby Green against an athletic, well-rounded top-10 opponent. This is not exactly a recipe for success, but Hernandez is not a lamb to the slaughter. There is a lot to like about “Alexander the Great’s” game and his skill set is one that could offer some surprising problems for the more experienced Dariush. He is a big, physically imposing wrestler who does not just look to shoot a blast double, but rather throws around his opponents, mauling them and suplexing them to the canvas before using heavy ground-and-pound to open up submission opportunities. However, despite being a powerhouse grappler by trade, the 25-year-old Texan has quickly pieced together a nice standup arsenal, showing power in his hands, as well as a nice kicking game, putting roundhouse kicks to the body of his opponents liberally. In Dariush’s last outing at UFC 216 in October, we saw the best and worst of his game in his raucous majority draw with Evan Dunham. The Kings MMA product lit up Dunham early, clobbering him with clean punches, kicks and elbows while turning in a 10-8 round. Then his output fell off a cliff, as he appeared to tire himself with his first-round assault, allowing Dunham to outgrapple him, win scrambles and eventually land strikes of his own. A southpaw with power and accuracy, not to mention a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Dariush never lacks for technique but often struggles to execute, especially if his opponent pressures him, which Hernandez will. Even so, Dariush is still the more experienced, crafty striker and should be able to use his footwork, jab and low kicks to avoid Hernandez’s early bulrushes. Hernandez may open some eyes and catch Dariush off guard early, but the favorite will eventually settle into his role as the matador, pile up strikes and take a decision.
Middleweight
C.B. Dollaway (16-8) vs. Hector Lombard (34-8-1)ODDS: Lombard (-145), Dollaway (+125)
ANALYSIS: This is about the lesser of evils. Now 40 years old, Lombard has not won a fight in four years. He has lost four in a row, been knocked out in three of those contests and looks increasingly shopworn, nowhere near the explosive, physical specimen that once reigned as Bellator MMA middleweight champion. Meanwhile, Dollaway is 1-3 in his last four outings and is returning to 185 pounds because of the fact that an elevator malfunction during UFC 203 fight week gave him a wedged disc in his neck and a compressed disc in his lower back, rendering him unable to keep the musculature necessary to fight at 205 pounds. Oh, boy. Though Dollaway has become a more competent standup fighter over the years, showing power in his hands and developing a quality kicking game, he has always had issues with striking defense, walking headlong into flush strikes and getting hurt. Even his last win over Ed Herman featured the incredibly slow and worn “Short Fuse” rocking him on several occasions early. Lombard’s time as an elite fighter is done and he has increasingly turned into a caricature of his own fight style, lumbering around the cage and sparsely uncorking single, wild left hands and the occasional leg kick. However, even if neither man has much in the way of cardio, Dollaway’s penchant for eating power strikes, combined with Lombard still being a sharp defensive wrestler, especially before he gasses, makes it likely “The Doberman” is going to get put down here. Lombard by knockout in the first eight minutes is the likely outcome.
Last Fights » Early Prelims