Preview: UFC 206 ‘Holloway vs. Pettis’

Light Heavyweights

Nikita Krylov (21-4) vs. Misha Cirkunov (12-2): OK, Krylovians, the time has finally come. Four fights in a row, I have picked against Krylov, and four times, he has proven me wrong. When I questioned his power, he became just the second man to actually knock out Ed Herman. When I criticized his sloppy, sprint grappling, he responded by submitting jiu-jitsu black belt Francimar Barroso. Now, the fun is over. Cirkunov is the man to end my pain. True, Cirkunov is a little stiff on the feet. True, he is a little slow-footed. Krylov will have his moments in the striking realm as Cirkunov walks him down. However, Cirkunov has a certain unflappable air about him. He is both confident and calm, and he pursues his game plan with patient determination. As his striking improves, his judo-based takedown and ground games become more and more unpredictable, all bolstered by his impressive physical strength. Seriously, if Krylov beats one of the light heavyweight division’s best prospects, I will have to jump on the bandwagon. Until that happens, though, I have hope. Reason will prevail. Cirkunov by unanimous decision is the pick.

Lightweights

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (8-2) vs. Drew Dober (17-7): Entering the UFC as a journeyman on a winning streak, Dober quickly felt the weight of his competition, losing three of his first five bouts with the promotion. The last of those losses prompted a change: Dober moved camps, began training with Elevation Fight Team and returned a changed fighter. First, he outwrestled Scott Holtzman, a serious change of pace for the Michael Bisping-esque kickboxer. Then he absolutely demolished Jason Gonzalez on the feet, comfortably sitting down on every strike for the first time in his career. So a man who would have likely been dominated on the ground by Aubin-Mercier two years ago now stands a good chance of stuffing takedowns and outstriking the Canadian prospect. Aubin-Mercier is a powerful takedown artist and grappler, but he has spent the last year earnestly working on his striking, with mixed results. He is still tentative on the feet and leaves himself open when he strikes. Should he get in repeatedly on Dober’s hips, he may steal the momentum for good, but Dober has only been submitted once; and his improved wrestling is a powerful complement to his granite chin, unpredictable movement and newfound punching power. The pick is Dober by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Valerie Letourneau (8-4) vs. Viviane Pereira (11-0): Letourneau had a rough go of it in her last Octagon appearance, suffering two separate knockouts at the hands and feet of Joanne Calderwood. Now she returns to strawweight and attempts to hold the gate against promotional newcomer Pereira. The 23-year-old Pereira certainly has momentum on her side, having racked up 11 straight wins on the Brazilian regional circuit. In terms of experience, however, Letourneau is more proven by far, having competed against the best fighters in the world since the start of her career. Pereira is a wild swarmer who tends to rush her way into the clinch behind a hailstorm of wild rights and lefts. She has power and tenacity, and she has also prevailed in a few decisions, which implies that her young body is capable, at least for the time being, of sustaining a breakneck pace for 15 minutes. Provided Letourneau can return to her previous form, her length, strength and clever tactics should bring her the win. Letourneau by unanimous decision is the pick.

Bantamweights

Mitch Gagnon (12-3) vs. Matthew Lopez (8-1): Here is yet another matchup surrounded by question marks. Gagnon has been hailed as a dark horse at 135 pounds for several years now, but it has been almost two years since he last appeared in the Octagon, with a potentially debilitating knee injury having kept him on the sidelines. Were it not for that layoff, he would be a fairly easy pick over “Lookin’ for a Fight” prospect Lopez, whose aggressive and well-rounded game looked phenomenal until he ran into the veteran savvy of Rani Yahya in his UFC debut. Lopez is a powerful puncher with solid takedowns and a relentless submission attack, but against Yahya, he was too reckless and undisciplined to maintain his assault for three rounds. Gagnon should be the more technical striker, and his takedown defense is quite good: Only Renan Barao and Bryan Caraway have taken him down in the UFC. Lopez is young and talented enough to produce a surprising result, but Gagnon is the more consistent fighter at this level -- at least he was before the injury. We shall see. The pick is Gagnon by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

John Makdessi (14-5) vs. Lando Vannata (8-1): UFC Fight Pass subscribers rejoice. The featured Fight Pass prelim sees tenured kickboxer Makdessi taking on up-and-comer Vannata, who shocked the world by nearly knocking out lightweight contender Tony Ferguson in his short-notice UFC debut. Vannata had some promise as a Division I wrestler but abandoned amateur athletics in favor of pro MMA after one semester of college. The grappling ability is a useful counterpoint to his powerful and creative striking. At just 24 years old, Vannata has only been competing since May 2012 and has spent most of that time learning under Jackson-Wink MMA striking maestro Brandon Gibson. His striking is both playful and dangerous, and he employs fluid footwork from a number of different stances, usually before closing the distance with shocking speed. Of course, Makdessi excels at maintaining the distance, and he has more than enough pop in his right hand to demand Vannata’s respect. A hard career as an undersized lightweight may have taken its toll on “The Bull,” however; Makdessi has won only two of his last five fights and has not really outclassed an opponent since his bout with Renee Forte in September 2013. Vannata has youth and momentum on his side, though it remains to be seen whether his poor stamina in the Ferguson fight was merely a product of the abbreviated training camp or a symptom of something more serious. Still, the pick is Vannata by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Jason Saggo (12-2) vs. Rustam Khabilov (20-3): Early on, it seemed that Saggo was one of those fighters who would lose without the aid of his Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Based on his loss to Paul Felder, there was no reason to think of Saggo as a competent striker. In his last fight, however, that narrative was changed. Saggo used his strikes to set up takedowns, yes, but he competed quite well with Leandro Silva despite relying almost entirely on kicks; and with a seriously heavy and systematic top game, all Saggo needs to do is compete on the feet to find success against elite fighters. In some ways, Khabilov is a nightmare opponent for Saggo. He is difficult to take down and quite effective in the scrambles; and while Khabilov has never displayed a truly nuanced striking game, he is both comfortable and powerful on the feet. However, volume is an issue for Khabilov, and Saggo’s preference for kicks may keep the Dagestani fighter at long range long enough to pick up a few rounds. Saggo is not flawless with his grappling, but he does pursue the takedown relentlessly and he is likely one of the few lightweights capable of controlling and outmaneuvering Khabilov on the ground. Provided he can protect his chin and keep from being suplexed, the pick is Saggo by split decision.

Flyweights

Zach Makovsky (19-7) vs. Dustin Ortiz (15-6): If last weekend was a beautiful advertisement for the flyweight division’s elite, this curtain-jerker is an advertisement for the middle of the pack. The UFC’s flyweight division may be shallow, but the waters sure are choppy. Makovsky and Ortiz may both be 2-3 in their last five fights, but because of the limited roster, they have had no choice but to compete against the very best the division has to offer. The names of the men who have beaten Ortiz and Makovsky recently: Joseph Benavidez, Jussier da Silva, Wilson Reis and John Dodson -- all serious contenders in the title picture. Of these two, Makovsky is the more cerebral fighter, with a style of striking that suggests long hours spent studying Lyoto Machida and a layered wrestling game reminiscent of Frankie Edgar. Ortiz, on the other hand, is a whirlwind of kinetic energy. He shoots more than seven times every 15 minutes and throws nearly seven significant strikes. However, he is also more hittable than Makovsky and slightly more susceptible to takedowns. Ortiz could overcome his flaws with sheer will, but he is facing a craftier, more careful fighter. The pick is Makovsky by unanimous decision.

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