Preview: UFC 203 ‘Miocic vs. Overeem’

Women’s Bantamweights

Jessica Eye (11-5) vs. Bethe Correia (9-2): Correia fell flat in her title shot against Ronda Rousey, but the loss can be forgiven. Correia was just three years into her pro career at the time and lacks the stellar athleticism that would be required to overcome such a lack of seasoning; and while Correia did not get the win in her return fight, she did take Raquel Pennington, currently riding a three-fight winning streak, to a split decision. If Correia, who has recently taken to training at the American Kickboxing Academy, can continue to improve her technique and broaden her skill set, she stands a very good chance of beating Eye. While Eye has always shown flashes of real talent, she is just 1-4 with one no contest since entering the UFC in October 2013. Despite some solid offensive boxing, Eye is consistently open to counters while she throws. Perhaps the biggest problem with her game is that she is constantly attacking and almost always vulnerable when she does, whether on the feet, in the clinch or on the ground. With that being said, Eye is still the more athletic of the two and has two more years and six more fights under her belt. Correia is a smart fighter who has shown the ability to make vast improvements from one fight to the next, and that is her edge in this bout. Correia by unanimous decision is the pick.

Lightweights

Nik Lentz (26-7-2-1) vs. Michael McBride (8-1): Lentz was supposed to be Mairbek Taisumov’s first big step up. Perhaps fortunately for “The Carny,” Taisumov is out with an injury, and Midwest Cage Championship titleholder McBride is in on just over a week’s notice. There exists little to no footage of McBride, but his record suggests a submission grappling style not unlike that of teammate Johnny Case. All eight of McBride’s wins have come by submission. Those are not the numbers that stand out here, however. What matters is that McBride is just four years and nine fights into his pro career. Lentz has been fighting for nearly three times as long and has clocked exactly four times as many fights. Lentz’s style makes him a nightmare short-notice matchup, too, as he pushes a quick pace and finishes about four takedowns per fight. McBride could survive and show a strong effort in the opening minutes, but he will almost certainly tire and let Lentz take over as the fight wears on. The pick is Lentz by third-round submission.

Middleweights

Caio Magalhaes (9-2) vs. Brad Tavares (13-4): Magalhaes has not fought since his submission loss to Josh Samman, after which he was briefly suspended for spitting in Samman’s face. I do not believe in karma, but the truth is that the Brazilian’s comeback opponent is not a forgiving one. Tavares is not a particularly dangerous fighter, but he is technical and well-rounded. Tavares throws a quick jab and powerful low kicks, keeps his distance and uses well-timed takedowns to quench his opponents’ aggression. Magalhaes is extremely aggressive but cannot maintain that pace for long. When his opponent does not go away early, he fades. Magalhaes has some skill on the ground, though as is the case on the feet aggression and power are more of a factor than skill; he is not a technical wrestler, using strength to make up for his lack of technique. He will struggle to make that work against Tavares, who has only ever been repeatedly taken down and controlled by Yoel Romero, who won 19 world and international medals during his wrestling career. Tavares will pick apart Magalhaes, dominate the wrestling game and add another decision to his resume. Tavares by unanimous decision is the pick.

Flyweights

Ian McCall (13-5-1) vs. Ray Borg (9-2): McCall would be a top contender but for the fact that he seems to get into his own head in nearly every fight. Technically, McCall has something to offer in every phase. He is a dangerous submission grappler, an impactful combination striker and a savvy takedown artist with 88 percent takedown defense. Despite all of this, McCall is known for his poor decision making. Against John Lineker, his game plan fell apart the moment Lineker was able to counter a takedown with a guillotine; against Iliarde Santos and Joseph Benavidez, McCall stood in the pocket and exchanged with the more experienced striker; and when McCall had Demetrious Johnson in a compromising position with just seconds left on the clock, he spent as much time playing to the crowd as he did landing strikes. That questionable fight IQ gives Borg a real shot here. Borg is a submission specialist with a layered takedown game, using angles and misdirection in the clinch when he cannot take down his opponent outright. On the ground, he transitions beautifully from floating top control to crushing pressure. McCall should be able to outstrike Borg, whose kickboxing needs polishing, but if he chooses to tangle with the prospect in the clinch or on the ground, the action could get dicey. The pick is McCall by close unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Yancy Medeiros (12-4) vs. Sean Spencer (12-5): In many ways, Spencer is the perfect candidate to beat Medeiros; on the other hand, he is a perfect candidate to be knocked out by the Hawaiian. Medeiros struggled with the sharp boxing of John Makdessi and was a little fortunate to receive the decision: MMA media scored the bout in favor of Makdessi 11-3; and though his methods are different, Medeiros possesses many of the same habits that allowed Spencer to nearly finish Mike Pyle in February: He is slow-footed, upright and wide open defensively. Spencer is two inches taller than Makdessi, with seven additional inches of reach, virtually identical in build to Medeiros. MMA math aside, however, Medeiros is a hard puncher with smooth combination punching. In his crouching stance, Spencer could very well eat Medeiros’ trademark uppercut, and though Spencer has proven his ability to fight through tough spots, he has also been badly hurt in several recent fights. Spencer is the smart choice, but Medeiros will give him three dangerous rounds. The pick is Spencer by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

C.B. Dollaway (15-8) vs. Francimar Barroso (18-5): What a slide for Clarence Byron Dollaway. “The Doberman” was essentially riding a five-fight winning streak -- that includes the wonky decision loss to Tim Boetsch -- and now he finds himself three losses in the hole. A switch to the light heavyweight division may be just what Dollaway needs to change his fortunes. Against Barroso, he should enjoy a speed advantage, and hopefully the lessened weight cut will help his durability. Barroso is a slow fighter, and his striking is fairly reductive, consisting mostly of single, lunging shots from long range. What he lacks in speed and fluidity, however, he makes up for in strength. Barroso is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and does have some skill on the ground, but the bulk of his submissions are from dominant positions, not guard, and even with his power, he is unlikely to outwrestle Dollaway, an NCAA All-American at Arizona State University, for any extended period of time. Unless Dollaway’s chin has badly deteriorated, he has enough stylistic advantages to win this one running away. Dollaway by third-round TKO is the pick.

Lightweights

Drew Dober (16-7) vs. Jason Gonzalez (10-2): Dober began his UFC career with three losses, one no-contest and only one win. It looked like a trend that would continue, but then Dober surprised us. Switching to the growing Elevation Fight Team camp, Dober came in and soundly beat the talented Scott Holtzman, taking his best shots, landing plenty of his own and, most surprising of all, dominating his grappling-savvy opponent on the floor. That newfound wrestling ability could very likely be the key against Gonzalez, a dangerous striker who is keen to wade into the pocket with punch-kick combinations, throwing almost exclusively power shots. His aggression leaves him susceptible to reactive takedowns, however. In the past, Gonzalez has mitigated this fault with an aggressive guard game, and he has submitted six opponents. Dober has only been submitted once, by Efrain Escudero, and showed excellent control and ground striking in his last effort. Dober is more experienced against a higher level of competition, and at this point, he is likely better trained. The pick is Dober by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Damir Hadzovic (10-3) vs. Yusuke Kasuya (9-2-2): Kasuya’s record is littered with submissions, but the Japanese fighter lacks the consistent wrestling attack necessary to press that advantage. As such, he spends a lot of time striking. Kasuya seems to be a converted southpaw, as most of his effective offense comes from his right hand and right leg; he is also comfortable fighting from orthodox as a result. Hadzovic is a more natural striker, however. He likes to stalk his opponents, coming forward with his hands high and chin tucked, slipping subtly from side to side as he looks to counter with both hands. Hadzovic is a powerful striker who throws in combination and likes to follow his punches into the clinch, where he brutalizes his opponent with short punches and elbows. When Kasuya does look for the takedown, that clinch fighting should allow Hadzovic to punish him and disincentivize further attempts; and if Kasuya cannot get the takedown, the fight belongs to Hadzovic. The pick is Hadzovic by second-round TKO.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.