Preview: UFC 202 ‘Diaz vs. McGregor 2’

Bantamweights

Cody Garbrandt (9-0) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (21-9-2): Garbrandt took advantage of the fragility and availability of Thomas Almeida’s chin to get his first marquee win, and now he finds himself matched with one of the toughest veterans in the bantamweight division -- a great test for the young knockout artist. Mizugaki is an underrated puncher in his own right: The dearth of KOs on his record is more a result of his lack of killer instinct than any lack of pop in his hands. He is also very crafty in the pocket and in the clinch, even if his technique is not always picture perfect. If Garbrandt’s knockout rate has gone to his head, he may find himself drowning in deep waters as Mizugaki attacks the body, counters, and, if he can get Garbrandt down, chips away from top position. More likely, though, Garbrandt’s speed and power prove too much for Mizugaki. Garbrandt failed to find the finish in his fight with Enrique Briones, and he did very well to maintain composure and settle for a decision win. That patience and discipline are the differences between Garbrandt and Francisco Rivera, whom Mizugaki beat in May 2014. The pick is Garbrandt by TKO in the second round.

Women’s Bantamweights

Raquel Pennington (7-5) vs. Elizabeth Phillips (5-3): Pennington has quietly established herself as one of the best journeywomen in the bantamweight division. While Phillips has yet to do the same, she has proven herself to be a gritty and resourceful fighter and promises to give Pennington a tough fight. Pennington is not a strong wrestler, but she can rack up damage very quickly with knees, elbows and short punches if her opponent accepts the clinch. That is her preferred range, and she works toward it with straight punches from distance. Phillips has shown a willingness to fight from the outside and counter, which could give Pennington problems, but she has never done this for three rounds without making some kind of critical mistake. Her footwork is not particularly polished and her striking, though powerful for the division, remains wild. Pennington is no defensive virtuoso on the feet, but Phillips’ best chance in this fight is still the ground, where she is a deft scrambler and credible submission threat. Pennington is a skilled grappler in her own right, however, and Phillips will have to clinch with “Rocky” before she can take her down, putting her right in the bigger fighter’s wheelhouse. The pick is Pennington by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Chris Avila (5-2) vs. Artem Lobov (11-12-1): While Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor warm up for their main event showdown, their teammates will duke it out on the prelims. Skrap Pack rep Avila bears all the trademarks of a Richard Perez boxer, with good straight punches, stinging hooks and efficient footwork to back it all up. Though much of Avila’s grappling game remains to be seen, his one submission win suggests that Cesar Gracie has not lost his touch as a jiu-jitsu coach. Experience is the biggest gap between Lobov and Avila. Lobov has more than three times as many fights as Avila, though also six times as many losses. Lobov’s limitations are well-known: He is often sorely outmatched on the ground, struggles to defend takedowns and relies too heavily on a very basic counterpunching game on the feet. Avila has seven extra inches of reach and the right style to pick apart Lobov, but his inexperience may undo those advantages. The pick is Lobov by unanimous decision in a close, back-and-forth fight.

Women’s Strawweights

Cortney Casey (5-3) vs. Randa Markos (6-3): A battle of wayward strawweight prospects fits neatly into UFC 202’s prelim lineup. Markos’ UFC run has been marred by two losses, but she has fought the best in her division and showed steady improvement despite the setbacks. She seemed to finally put together her striking game in her recent fight with Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger, showing sharp punches and improved defense while fighting out of an awkward crouch. Casey also demonstrated improvement in her last fight, wherein she effortlessly took down the similarly untested Cristina Stanciu and beat her up from top position -- a definite step up from her guard-pulling tactics against Joanne Calderwood. Despite Casey’s physicality, however, Markos’ style is a bad one for her, not unlike the tricky volume striking of Seo Hee Ham, who outpointed Casey in November. Casey is the more powerful of the two and coming into her own, but Markos has won her experience the hard way and should be able to pressure Casey and pick her apart. The pick is Markos by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Neil Magny (18-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (17-5): Larkin’s UFC career began with a series of losses, but since dropping to welterweight, he has shown not only better strength and power relative to his opposition but steadily improving technique. Perhaps the biggest change in Larkin’s game is his footwork. Always prone to being backed into the fence and beaten up in close, Larkin’s recent performances have been marked by smart cage craft, constant lateral movement and, against Jorge Masvidal, more pressure and better boxing. Magny’s recent run has been even more phenomenal, but he will have a hard time dealing with Larkin’s speed and precision. Like many tall fighters, Magny tends to panic when his opponent closes the distance. He is comfortable at range and in the clinch but not in the spaces between. Should Magny tie up Larkin and drag him to the floor, the fight will change dramatically, but Larkin is neither easy to take down nor a breeze to control on the floor. This fight may look something like Magny’s bout with Hector Lombard, except that Larkin throws more volume and does not flag down the stretch. The pick is Larkin by second-round TKO.

Welterweights

Colby Covington (9-1) vs. Max Griffin (12-2): “Power” is the key word when discussing UFC debutante Griffin. A large and heavily muscled welterweight, Griffin is a power puncher with an otherwise underdeveloped game. Though he possesses a stiff jab, he tends to lead with naked power shots and leaves himself open for counter strikes and takedowns. Covington’s own striking is in need of work, but he can quietly train those skills in the background while expecting to outgrapple Griffin the way he has four of his five other UFC opponents. There is always a window for a puncher like Griffin to find the knockout, but the sensible pick is Covington by third-round submission.

Middleweights

Alberto Emiliano Pereira (9-1) vs. Marvin Vettori (10-2): This is a very tough fight to call. Pereira has a limited skill set: He primarily throws hard kicks at long range and lands knees from the double collar tie. Nonetheless, he is extremely dangerous in these two ranges and will work body lock takedowns if given the opportunity. From top position, “Uda” is a capable grappler but not one who makes the most of his striking power. On the bottom, he is an inactive full guard player. Vettori may have cinched a big win over Igor Araujo at Venator Fighting Championship 3, but he is still a young, inexperienced athlete with a reckless style. Vettori is durable and tough in exchanges and scrambles, however, and he should be able to take over this fight as the rounds wear on. An early knockout for Pereira would not be surprising, but the pick is Vettori by third-round submission.

Finish Reading » Specialty Sections