John Moraga remains a force at 125 pounds. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
FLYWEIGHTS
John Moraga (15-3, 4-2 UFC) vs. Willie Gates (11-4, 0-0 UFC): Newcomer Gates steps up on short notice to take on former title challenger Moraga, who got back on track with a submission victory over uber-prospect Justin Scoggins in September. Gates is a huge flyweight at 5-foot-9 with an arsenal of kicks and knees that exploit his height and go along with outstanding physical tools, though he lacks polish as a grappler. Moraga is something of an enigma: He has all the skills but never seems to put them together into a coherent, dominant package for an entire fight. I expect to see that here, with Gates putting leather on Moraga early before the more experienced fighter catches him with his signature guillotine. Moraga by submission in the second is the pick.WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHTS
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (7-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Claudia Gadelha (12-0, 1-0 UFC): Watch out, because this is likely to be the “Fight of the Night,” as well as the top-contender matchup for the first crack at the “The Ultimate Fighter 20” winner’s strawweight strap. Gadelha, a product of Nova Uniao, has all of the deep, complete skill sets we have come to expect from that camp’s top fighters: slick multi-punch combinations, both moving forward and countering, hard low kicks, strong wrestling and a punishing top game. Jedrzejczyk is mostly a striker but one who whirls crisp body-head combinations at a furious pace and has the outstanding defensive wrestling necessary to keep the fight on the feet. This is a close fight, and an intriguing one, but I think Gadelha will take a tight unanimous decision by wearing down Jedrzejczyk in the clinch and from top position with her superior strength and technique, all while eating her fair share of punching combinations in return.WELTERWEIGHTS
Joe Riggs (40-14, 4-4 UFC) vs. Ben Saunders (17-6-2, 5-3 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter 7” competitor Saunders made a triumphant return to the Octagon in August with a thrilling omoplata finish of Chris Heatherly; he gets a fellow wanderer of MMA’s smaller promotions, Riggs, in his latest outing. Saunders is a solid range striker but does his best work in the clinch with his arsenal of brutal knees, and his guard is one of the most underrated and dangerous in the sport. Riggs, who suffered a self-inflicted gunshot wound and had to be pulled from his scheduled re-debut, can do a bit of everything and does it all pretty well. With 13 years and 55 fights under his belt, however, his durability is not what it once was. I expect Saunders to put leather and knees on Riggs in the clinch and to score the knockout in the second round.LIGHTWEIGHTS
Jamie Varner (21-10-1, 3-5 UFC) vs. Drew Dober (14-6, 0-2 UFC): Former World Extreme Cagefighting champion Varner, who has dropped four of his last five fights, draws Dober in a likely loser-leaves-town matchup. Varner can wrestle and strike with equal skill and packs real power in his head-body punching combinations, while Dober is a volume striker with excellent takedown defense. If this turns into a pure striking matchup, the durable Dober could take a decision on volume, but I expect Varner to mix up his takedowns with combinations and take a decision of his own.MIDDLEWEIGHTS
Derek Brunson (12-3, 3-1 UFC) vs. Ed Herman (22-10, 9-6 UFC): Coming off a grinding decision win over Lorenz Larkin in August, Brunson gets an intriguing matchup in aggressive, dangerous veteran Herman. Brunson, a product of Jackson-Wink MMA, is an excellent athlete and powerful wrestler with a decent southpaw kickboxing game, but he has yet to put it all together into a coherent whole. Herman is a throwback wrestle-grappler with dangerous submissions and a solid clinch game, but his range striking is and always has been a liability. Given that Herman is one of the slowest fighters in the UFC, Brunson will hold a ridiculous edge in speed and athleticism. He should be able to grind out another decision over Herman with takedowns and range striking but will probably have to fight out of a submission attempt or two along the way.LIGHTWEIGHTS
Joe Ellenberger (15-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. Bryan Barberena (9-2, 0-0 UFC): Ellenberger returns following his contentious debut win over James Moontasri and draws UFC newcomer Barbarena in his second outing. Barbarena, a product of Arizona’s MMA Lab, is an enormous lightweight whose game revolves around that size and strength in the clinch and from top position. Ellenberger is a fairly polished and technical wrestler with a good top game of his own but, like Barbarena, lacks much in the way of a striking game. Ellenberger should not have much trouble repeatedly planting Barbarena on his back and taking a decision.LIGHTWEIGHTS
David Michaud (7-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Garett Whiteley (7-2, 0-2 UFC): Michaud and Whiteley are likely fighting for their jobs in this potentially fun lightweight battle. Whiteley has lost two straight, most recently to Vinc Pichel in January, while Michaud dropped a back-and-forth decision to Jingliang Li in May. Whiteley is a skilled striker with slick kicks at range and a fantastic infighting game, but he is not much of a wrestler and struggles to keep the fight standing. Michaud, on the other hand, is a good athlete with solid takedowns and should be able to take down Whiteley repeatedly. Michaud by decision is the pick.BANTAMWEIGHTS
Henry Cejudo (6-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Dustin Kimura (11-2, 2-2 UFC): Cejudo, the 2008 Olympic freestyle wrestling gold medalist, finally debuts in the Octagon following a failed weight cut in his intended debut in August. As one would expect, Cejudo has ridiculous skills on the mat and off-the-charts athleticism, which he complements with a surprisingly advanced boxing game. Kimura is mostly a grappler and a fairly dangerous one, with a decent striking game of his own. While Cejudo’s dedication to MMA has been questioned, he should be the easy choice here barring some major meltdown. Cejudo by dominant decision is the pick.BANTAMWEIGHTS
Anthony Birchak (11-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Ian Entwistle (8-2, 0-1 UFC): After being pulled from his scheduled debut against Joe Soto in August due to Renan Barao’s failed weight cut, former Maximum Fighting Championship bantamweight champion Birchak will finally make his debut against Entwistle. Birchak, unlike most of the raw prospects the UFC is signing these days, has enough experience to be quite polished. He is a skilled wrestler with great athleticism and wild if powerful and dangerous striking skills. Entwistle is a stocky, strong fighter who specializes in leg locks and other submissions in transition, but he offers little else. Birchak should be able to keep the fight standing and beat up Entwistle for a knockout in the second round.Follow Sherdog.com preview expert Patrick Wyman on Twitter.