Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Whittaker vs. Brunson’

Middleweights

Daniel Kelly (11-1) vs. Chris Camozzi (24-11)

THE MATCHUP: I do not think I have ever picked against someone as confidently as I picked against Kelly in his last fight. To the shock of everyone but Kelly himself, the Australian judoka overcame blue-chip prospect and super-athlete Antonio Carlos Jr., by knockout no less. The win highlighted Kelly’s toughness and determination but also his innate talent for MMA, certainly a surprise considering Kelly spent 28 years competing in judo and only began his professional mixed martial arts career in earnest five years ago. Kelly is currently 39 years old.

In Camozzi, he meets a very different opponent, but it is unclear whether or not the change will benefit Kelly. One of the most serendipitous aspects of the Carlos Jr. fight was the Brazilian’s gas tank. Carlos Jr. gassed after dominating the first half of the bout, and his inexperience made that a serious problem. In a word, he folded. Camozzi cannot possibly hope to grapple with Kelly as competitively as Carlos Jr. did, but he is a much smoother striker with a ton of MMA experience -- over 11 years, with 18 fights in the UFC.

Camozzi’s strong suit is his rangy southpaw kickboxing. He throws a lot of low kicks, but his best weapon is his stiff right jab. Camozzi is not a bad defender of takedowns, but he failed abysmally when it came time to cancel the wrestling of Thales Leites. That does not bode well for Camozzi here. Fortunately, he did prove his own determination, staggering Leites in the third round before being dragged back to the floor to accept his fate. To win here, Camozzi will need to have improved his takedown defense dramatically or keep Kelly at such a long distance that he cannot hope to complete a takedown. The saving grace for Camozzi: Should Kelly get him down, he does not possess the same level of crushing top control as Leites.

THE PICK: This is not an unwinnable fight for Camozzi. Kelly is not the most consistent takedown artist in the world and he needs the clinch range to execute most of his judo-style throws, trips and sweeps. If Camozzi can deny Kelly that range consistently, he should be able to rack up points from distance. Kelly, however, is a solid pressure fighter with good pop in his hands, and he seems willing to take a shot if it means furthering his game plan. This one could get dicey, but Kelly can compete in Camozzi’s area of expertise better than Camozzi can in his. The pick is Kelly by unanimous decision.

Last Fights » The Prelims