Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Shogun vs. St. Preux’

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WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHTS

Juliana de Lima Carneiro (6-2, 0-1 UFC) vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-3, 0-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: After dropping her UFC debut to the talented Joana Jedrzejczyk, touted strawweight Carneiro attempts to get back on track on home turf against an Octagon rookie in Ansaroff. The American, a talented striker, is coming off a devastating knockout over Munah Holland in her only Invicta Fighting Championships appearance in December.

Carneiro is reasonably well-rounded, but the best facet of her game is probably her striking. She throws clean combinations and finishes with hard low kicks but rarely strings more than two or at most three shots together at a time. Defense is something of a problem, as Carneiro rarely pulls her head off the centerline and relies on covering up for defense, which makes her relatively easy to hit. Carneiro is capable of grinding away in the clinch, showing strong control and throwing some nice knees and elbows inside. She is not a bad wrestler per se, but she has a tendency to shoot from too far away and does not do enough to set up her shots with her potent striking; her takedown defense could use some work. On the mat, Carneiro does excellent work from top position and has a talent for scrambles, but she is not a serious threat.

Ansaroff, a huge strawweight and quick, strong athlete, is a striker by preference. She flashes a crisp jab, throws hard low kicks as she circles and loves to drop dynamite punching combinations when her opponent tries to corner her. Unfortunately, Ansaroff has a bad habit of getting caught up against the cage. Her desire to throw bombing counters often accentuates that tendency, and she can lose entire rounds as her opponent presses her against the fence and grinds away. In open space, however, Ansaroff’s speed gives her a quick shot and a variety of finishes to her takedowns. She is no more than a decent grappler but can land some shots and work control from the top.

BETTING ODDS: Ansaroff (-155), Carneiro (+135)

THE PICK: The outcome revolves around whether Carneiro can steer the fight toward the fence or Ansaroff can keep herself in open space. Both fighters will have some success -- Ansaroff especially is more skilled and dangerous than her 6-3 record indicates -- but I think Carneiro can hold her own in the middle of the cage while winning enough exchanges against the fence to take a decision. “Ju Thai” by competitive split decision is the pick.

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