Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Maia vs. LaFlare’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS
Gilbert Burns (9-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Alex Oliveira (10-1-1, 0-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Following an injury to Josh Thomson, rising star Burns draws UFC newcomer Oliveira on late notice. Burns, a product of the Blackzilians team, took a decision from Andreas Stahl in his UFC debut in July and submitted Christos Giagos in October. Oliveira is a solid prospect, with his only loss coming against current UFC welterweight Wendell de Oliveira Marques.

Burns is a real talent, even in the stacked lightweight division. An outstanding athlete and legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, he has taken to the other facets of MMA like a fish to water. He is a surprisingly crafty striker, slinging hard punching combinations that he punctuates with slick kicks at all levels, and he can operate both moving forward and on the counter. He is an excellent wrestler, to boot, with an array of trips and throws in the clinch to go along with technical shot takedowns, especially his single-leg. On the ground, Burns is everything you would expect from a world champion grappler, with ultra-slick passes, a lethal submission repertoire and a great understanding of how to use strikes to open up his preferred game.

Oliveira is a good pickup for the UFC, with some skill in every facet of the game and solid physical tools. He likes to exchange in the pocket, with a good repertoire of body-head combinations and the occasional kick to go along with solid head movement, and he transitions nicely from striking into the clinch. He likes uppercuts and hard knees on the inside, and he is not a bad offensive wrestler, though his preference for high-amplitude slams allows his opponents to escape too easily. On the mat, he is essentially an opportunist who likes to throw bombs and lock up the occasional submission in transition.

THE PICK: I am high enough on Burns that I likely would have taken him over Thomson, and Oliveira is simply not on Burns’ level in terms of physicality, coaching and technical skill. Burns should have his choice of ways to finish, but the most likely scenario involves the Blackzilians product dropping Oliveira with a strike and then finishing with a submission. The pick is Burns by tapout in the first round.

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