Lightweights
Charles Oliveira (26-8) vs. Nik Lentz (30-9-2)ODDS: Oliveira (-365), Lentz (+305)
Is this finally the run where Oliveira gets over the hump to title contention? It has been nearly a decade since Oliveira burst onto the scene as a lightweight submission prodigy, at which point the UFC’s matchmakers seemed determined to break him. Wins over Darren Elkins and Efrain Escudero led to Oliveira being thrown to the wolves against Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone, and once “Do Bronx” sought a new start at featherweight, it was much the same story, with two impressive wins leading to Oliveira being matched against Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar. Oliveira has always been able to rely on that submission game -- he now has the record for most submission wins in UFC history -- but it has always been a question of whether or not Oliveira would cave completely before getting a chance to set it up. The Brazilian crumbles to a degree rarely seen in the sport when things go against him, most notably in a 2015 fight against Max Holloway in which Oliveira essentially gave up due to a phantom injury. Over the last year-plus, Oliveira has at least looked as confident in his abilities as he has ever been; he has slowly developed a pressure striking style over the years, and his last win over David Teymur showed a willingness to march forward with little regard for what his opponent throws back. Between his notoriety and a four-fight winning streak, Oliveira should have been set up for bigger things, but for whatever reason, he is instead matched against a familiar opponent in a trilogy fight with Lentz.
As baffling a fight as this is for Oliveira, this is probably the best use of the notoriously boring Lentz; this will be his 23rd fight in the UFC but only the third on the main card, the last of which was his 2015 “Fight of the Night” performance against Oliveira. Lentz started as a grinder through and through, and his infamous UFC 118 win over Andre Winner sealed his fate as a prelim fighter. As one of two bouts on the Spike TV prelims, Lentz’s victory was so boring that the UFC internally considered it a reason for the show’s buy rate coming in under expectations. Despite the wrath of the company, Lentz continued to win enough that it just kept him around, and he continues to frustrate both fans and opponents. Lentz’s athleticism and gas tank have faltered enough over the years that he can now get outworked by younger fighters, but his February win over Scott Holtzman was a reminder that he will probably still be playing spoiler long after anyone wants him to.
Again, this is basically the one fun Lentz matchup, as Oliveira’s lethal submissions and Lentz’s relentless grinding tend to make for a lot of back-and-forth scrambles. However, since that 2015 fight, Lentz has started to flag while Oliveira has just continued to refine his game. Lentz could be trouble early, but eventually, his gas tank should wane, and it is easy to see him eventually charging forward in a manner that allows Oliveira to find his neck and put an end to things. The pick is Oliveira via second-round submission.
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