Preview: UFC Fight Night 146 ‘Lewis vs. Dos Santos’

Lightweights

Beneil Dariush (15-4-1) vs. Drew Dober (20-8)

ODDS: Dariush (-175), Dober (+155)

Dariush sure became an afterthought quickly. Just two years ago, Dariush still looked like one of the best young fighters in a deep lightweight division. He had high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials and was constantly improving a solid pressure striking game; and even after suffering a shocking submission loss to Michael Chiesa in a bout where he became lazy with his grappling, Dariush rebounded with an absolute destruction of James Vick and an impressive performance against Rashid Magomedov. However, in his last few fights, Dariush’s struggles with better and more aggressive athletes -- an issue that goes back to his first career loss to Ramsey Nijem -- now look like they might be fatal flaws. Dariush was winning his fight against Edson Barboza before getting obliterated with a flying knee, and after going to a draw with Evan Dunham, the debuting Alexander Hernandez rushed the Kings MMA export and starched him in under a minute. Badly needing a win, Dariush was content to grind out a decision against Thiago Moises, which hopefully does not represent a permanent style shift. Dariush is a fun watch when he uses all his tools, and it would be a shame to see him turn into a conservative wrestler. At any rate, having gotten off the schneid, he looks to regain some career momentum and make it two wins in a row against Dober.

For a while, it was unclear where exactly Dober was supposed to excel. He won only one of his first five bouts in the UFC, and that only came because Jamie Varner botched a throw and landed on his own head. Eventually, things clicked for Dober, and he has become a solid action fighter, focusing on a technically sound kickboxing game and possessing decent enough takedown defense to keep it standing most of the time. Dober has beaten a fairly low level of competition -- while he has won five out of six, the best win was probably over Scott Holtzman at a point when he was still figuring out things -- so a victory over Dariush would be huge for Dober’s attempts to start climbing the lightweight ladder.

This is a mildly interesting matchup, but Dariush should have the advantage here. If it remains on the feet, Dober does have enough power that there is a chance he can crack Dariush, but he also does not generally apply the type of pressure that gives him fits. While Dober’s stout, muscular frame should be an advantage as far as preventing Dariush’s attempts to take him to the mat, the Nebraskan’s 2016 loss to Olivier Aubin-Mercier looms as a reminder that his takedown defense only works well up to a certain level. There is a chance Dober has shored up those weaknesses, as he has continued to improve every time out, but the pick is Dariush via second-round submission.

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