Preview: UFC 266 ‘Volkanovski vs. Ortega’

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Women’s Flyweights

#1 WFLW | Jessica Andrade (21-9, 12-7 UFC) vs. #5 WFLW | Cynthia Calvillo (9-2-1, 6-2-1 UFC)

ODDS: Andrade (-275), Calvillo (+235)

Where does Andrade go from here? She came into the UFC as a raw and aggressive bantamweight prospect, though her career did not truly get going until her cut to strawweight. Andrade still did not have much in the way of technical depth, but she was now an absolute bulldozer at 115 pounds, able to run over opponents with a rare level of power for a fighter her size. Andrade’s first chance at UFC gold did not go particularly well, as Joanna Jedrzejczyk managed to keep her at a distance for the better part of five rounds, but “Bate Estaca” immediately went back to her violent and winning ways, putting together a winning streak that included an impressive victory over Claudia Gadelha and a sub-two-minute knockout of Karolina Kowalkiewicz. That set up the Parana Vale Tudo star for a second title shot, this time against Rose Namajunas, and she took the strawweight strap in typical Andrade fashion—by picking up “Thug Rose” and dropping her directly onto her head. Andrade’s reign did not last long. Weili Zhang was the rare fighter who could meet Andrade head-on and knocked her out quickly as a result, and after a narrow loss to Namajunas in their rematch, the Brazilian was suddenly left without an obvious path back to strawweight contention. As a result, Andrade moved up to flyweight—a much more wide-open division where she could quickly make herself a top contender, which she did after a first-round finish of Katlyn Chookagian in October. April saw Andrade become the latest victim of champion Valentina Shevchenko without much resistance, so the Brazilian is once again left without much of an obvious next direction. For now, she will face Calvillo, who is looking to regain some of her own lost momentum.

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Her 2017 campaign resulted in a breakout year for Calvillo, who went from relatively unknown prospect to showcased strawweight contender in a matter of months. Calvillo made her late-notice debut early in the year, and the UFC was seemingly immediately in on her upon an impressive submission win over Amanda Bobby Brundage. She was given another opportunity to showcase her skills against Pearl Gonzalez and then moved into a co-main event that she wound up winning against Joanne Calderwood. However, Calvillo ran into a wall against Carla Esparza, a performance that exposed one of her main flaws: For all of her impressive acumen on the ground, she spends a lot of time attempting to strike with her opponents. Calvillo can still win fights that way, but it is a clear misallocation of time and effort. Weight cutting issues eventually forced Calvillo up to flyweight, where it was much the same story. A November loss to Chookagian raised some red flags, as Calvillo was not able to accomplish much. Chookagian was obviously the more comfortable striker, and Calvillo’s wrestling game did not lead much of anywhere. Calvillo could badly use a win here to stay ahead of the rising tide of prospects making their way up the flyweight ranks, and she could very well get it. Andrade will crash into her repeatedly, so even if Calvillo does not find much success with her own wrestling game, she should still find opportunities to hunt for a submission that could take advantage of the Brazilian’s lack of technical depth. However, based on what Calvillo has shown at flyweight, it seems likelier that Andrade can just overpower her and continue to control the fight. The pick is Andrade via decision.

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