John Brannigan/Sherdog illustration
Women’s Flyweights
Amanda Ribas (9-1) vs. Paige VanZant (8-4)It seems like a lock that this will be the last fight of VanZant’s UFC career, and what a fascinating career it has been. A lot was made of the UFC’s pushing VanZant beyond what she warranted, and while there is something to that—insert a euphemism like “marketable looks” here—she was a prospect worth investing in based solely on her talent. Her 2015 win over Felice Herrig stands out as VanZant at her best, as she managed to grapple with Herrig and set a pace that the veteran could not match before overwhelming her on route to a decision win. Building on her deceptive strength and cardio looked like VanZant’s best path to success going forward, but she hit a huge roadblock in the form of Rose Namajunas. One assumes that the UFC viewed the fight, which was VanZant’s first main event, as a way to get “12 Gauge” over the hump into title contention, but it was a gross miscalculation by everyone involved. On the plus side, VanZant proved that she had an immense amount of heart and could fight through adversity, but that was unfortunately shown through her suffering a one-sided beating that ended in a late submission. The UFC was still clearly in the VanZant business—she went right from the Namajunas fight into a strong showing on “Dancing with the Stars”—but that fight was still basically the peak of VanZant’s career. Things have gone sideways since. VanZant’s next fight came against Bec Rawlings, and while it ended in a highlight-reel knockout victory, her performance raised many red flags, as she suddenly pivoted away from her strengths into a range striking game. A subsequent submission loss to Michelle Waterson even raised questions about VanZant’s strength, as a former atomweight had little trouble reversing a VanZant throw and moving to a dominant position. The frustrations have continued in recent years, particularly after her 2018 fight against Jessica-Rose Clark. VanZant fought through a broken arm suffered in the second round that has caused issues ever since, leading to her fighting only one time in the last two and a half years. While VanZant has disappointed as a prospect, she at least does seem to be doing well personally. For all the criticism the UFC got for pushing her, the public does react to her as a star, and she has exhibited some savvy in terms of positioning herself for a life outside of fighting. This is the last fight on VanZant’s UFC contract, and it seems certain that she will join her husband in Bellator MMA once she heads to free agency. If nothing else, the UFC does not typically take kindly to fighters who realize their own worth. As such, it is time for a good old-fashioned spite booking, as the UFC is obviously looking to have Ribas make a name for herself by sending VanZant out of the promotion with a loss.
Ribas’ ascent to top prospect has been a pleasant surprise, to say the least. The Brazilian was slated to make her UFC debut back in 2017, but after getting railroaded by the United States Anti-Doping Agency, she was not able to step into the Octagon until June 2019. Ribas certainly decided to make up for lost time. Her debut over Emily Whitmire was a revelation, as beyond scoring a dominant win, Ribas showed a ton of charisma in the post-fight proceedings. That gave way to a breakout win over Mackenzie Dern, who was obviously the A-side and the top prospect being set up for success. Ribas took apart all of the gaps in Dern’s game and got another one-sided victory. After sneaking in another win over Randa Markos right before the pandemic shut things down, Ribas has essentially proven everything she needs to prove as a prospect. Now she just needs to prove herself as a contender.
The big surprise to Ribas’ game is how much of a physical force she has been. That did not come through on her regional film, so it was a shock when she managed to control strong fighters like Dern and Markos with her wrestling. That is basically the only point of intrigue here. This is a one-off move for Ribas to flyweight, so that dynamic may shift a bit with her opponent carrying 10 extra pounds. However, it is difficult to tell if VanZant can even take advantage of that anymore. Since moving up to flyweight for her last two fights, VanZant has had similar difficulty dealing with larger opponents. Without that advantage, it becomes virtually impossible to see how VanZant wins this. She might be the most dangerous striker Ribas has faced to date, but the Brazilian looks mindful enough on the feet to at least prevent VanZant from scoring a flashy knockout. While VanZant can still be a dangerous submission artist on the mat, Ribas can hang there in her own right; after all, she did avoid trouble against Dern. The UFC knows what it is doing with this one. The pick is Ribas via clear decision.
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