Welterweights
NR | Alex Oliveira (19-8-1) vs. NR | Max Griffin (15-7)Advertisement
Is Oliveira broken? The Brazilian “Cowboy” has been an interesting prospect since his 2015 debut saw him gave Gilbert Burns a surprisingly tough fight. He has also been a hard one to pin down. From fight to fight, it seemed random as to whether or not Oliveira would rely on his striking or wrestling to take out specific opponents. Eventually, it became apparent that Oliveira’s style is mostly a grab bag of skills held together by his athleticism and instincts. While his boxing form is not particularly pretty and his clinch game is not particularly technical, that does not matter much if he can score a knockout or throw around his opponents. That served him well enough until the tail end of 2018, when Gunnar Nelson managed to score a come-from-behind submission win over the Brazilian and start Oliveira’s complete unraveling. Without even factoring in worrying legal issues outside of the cage, Oliveira has seemingly lost all confidence in his game past a certain point. His comfort as a frontrunner has always been a bit apparent—Yancy Medeiros outlasted him in a brawl that was one of the best fights of 2017—but 2019 bouts against Mike Perry and Nicolas Dalby brought that back in a big way, as Oliveira bullied around both opponents before completely fading down the stretch once they refused to go away. Oliveira’s physical tools would theoretically give him a floor, but he is in danger of completely flaming out here, and the bad news is that Griffin almost always provides a tough fight.
Griffin has some of the same issues since his style is also marked by aggression and athleticism that fades down the stretch. A 2018 win over Perry stands out as the smartest fight of Griffin’s career, but even that followed the trend of his UFC career: losses where he has looked good against tough competition and wins that have been tougher than they needed to be. Griffin can do a little bit of everything offensively, but despite being a powerful athlete, he is not much of a finisher, so things always wind up devolving into a bit of a mess. Griffin often tires out, but he is willing to keep fighting while being too tough to put away, so the end result is a coinflip on the scorecards more often than not.
This will be fun if nothing else, as both men seem likely to just smash into each other. Oliveira should have the early advantage given that he is the much harder hitter in what could be a brawl, but it is difficult to have much confidence in him beating anyone willing to stick around; and if nothing else, Griffin has proven he is capable of doing so after a career full of tough fights. Oliveira may just be able to bull around Griffin and get an early submission, but the American has never been cleanly knocked out despite being pitted against some hard hitters. Maybe this is the fight where Griffin’s chin finally cracks, but it is difficult to predict that until it happens. The pick is for Griffin to outlast Oliveira and score a hard-fought decision victory.
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