Middleweights
Krzysztof Jotko (20-4) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (11-2)ODDS: Jotko (-165), Barriault (+145)
It has been a rollercoaster of a UFC career for Poland’s Jotko. He was part of the UFC’s mass of international signings in 2013-14 and looked to be slotted right into the promotion’s circuit of mid-tier European middleweights, particularly after an early loss to Magnus Cedenblad. After that, however, Jotko kept winning. Even as far back as his debut against Bruno Santos, Jotko showed an ability to be strong in the clinch, but he supplemented that with a janky but increasingly effective striking game, resulting in a five-fight winning streak that took him to the fringes of contender status. Come 2017, things quickly corrected themselves, as Jotko dropped three straight fights. The first bout, a grinding loss to David Branch, showed one of the main problems in Jotko’s approach, as he can often be lured into a slow-paced affair that can go either way. His next defeat was simply a case of Uriah Hall doing Uriah Hall things, scoring a sudden knockout in a fight that Jotko had been handily winning. With that said, two losses, no matter how narrow the margins, are two losses, which made it a terrible time for the third setback, this time to Brad Tavares, to be the most one-sided of the bunch. Thankfully, Jotko got thrown a bit of a softball in his last fight against Alen Amedovski, which served as both a much-needed win and an opportunity for him to remind everyone of the talents he can bring to the cage. Perhaps now it is time to further regain some of his lost momentum against Quebec’s Barriault.
Barriault had been on the UFC radar for a bit, but after winning both the middleweight and light heavyweight championships of Montreal’s TKO Major League MMA promotion, “Power Bar” getting called up to the big leagues became inevitable. Barriault’s an atypical prospect for someone who has enjoyed his level of success. While the UFC often signs dynamic athletes or powerful wrestlers, Barriault seems to mostly get by on toughness and knockout power. Even in some of his quicker finishes, Barriault often had to take some damage or get controlled for a bit before coming back with a barrage of his own and scoring a stoppage. Thankfully, that is a set of skills that can work at middleweight, even if it did not earn Barriault the win in his May debut against Andrew Sanchez. It will be interesting to see how the Quebec native fleshes out things at the UFC level.
For someone coming off of a loss, this is a strangely difficult matchup for Barriault, given that his drawing two main-card assignments in two fights suggests that the UFC wants to get behind him. Jotko is at his best when he can keep his opponents guessing, and if an opponent can start neutralizing his takedowns, like Branch, or overpowering him on the feet, like Tavares, his situation often starts to stagnate. Unfortunately for Barriault, he does not appear to be capable of keeping Jotko from using his entire arsenal. The good news is that Barriault has experience coming from behind, and it looks like he will need it here. Jotko’s clinch game, in particular, looks like enough to stall out exchanges and win rounds against the Canadian. Barriault’s best shot at victory is probably hitting Jotko early and trying to turn him into a one-dimensional wrestler, but even then, the Pole might just be able to grind out things. Jotko can be caught -- the Hall fight happened less than two years ago -- but Barriault’s hopes mainly revolve around a puncher’s chance. The pick is Jotko via decision.
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