City of dreams @Stylebender takes in the @NYKnicks at @TheGarden! #UFC230 pic.twitter.com/mMUwmpOK6J
— UFC (@ufc) October 30, 2018
Middleweights
Derek Brunson (18-6) vs. Israel Adesanya (14-0)ODDS: Adesanya (-325), Brunson (+265)
The UFC has obviously earmarked Adesanya for stardom, and he has more than come through every step of the way. One of the more exciting kickboxers out there, New Zealand’s Adesanya figured to have some star potential, but there are always questions about whether or not former kickboxers can wrestle; Adesanya has improved rapidly on that side of the ledger. Rob Wilkinson enjoyed some success in Adesanya’s UFC debut but tired and got knocked out, while Marvin Vettori never really tried to press those advantages and only looked decent when he did. In Adesanya’s most recent fight -- a main-event win over Brad Tavares -- he mostly shut down Tavares’ takedown attempts after wearing him out in a kickboxing contest. Adesanya’s reedy frame still makes wrestling a concern against some of the more hulking grinders at 185 pounds, but it is an increasingly diminishing liability. Combined with Adesanya’s dynamic striking style, it makes him an elite prospect. With this fight against Brunson, Adesanya gets the chance to turn the corner from elite prospect into fresh contender. Not bad for someone who has only been fighting in the UFC for nine months.
Brunson’s January loss to Ronaldo Souza probably affirmed Brunson’s role as a gatekeeper; there are worse fates. Brunson started out his career as a boring blanket wrestler but later supplemented that skill with a blitzing striking game. He felt out his opponents for a few minutes, and once he sensed he had the advantage, he would just unload bombs, leading to a string of first-round knockouts that put him onto the fringes of the title picture. However, the door got firmly shut on Brunson. First came an infamous performance against Robert Whittaker in which Brunson just decided to charge at “Bobby Knuckles” with no regard for defense. The future champ played matador against Brunson before stunning him and scoring the knockout. Then Brunson adjusted too much in the other direction against Anderson Silva; he still deserved the win, but Brunson’s passivity let Silva win a decision by dictating the terms of the fight. Brunson at least learned a lesson from that fight, as he turned back to aggression and smoked Daniel Kelly and Lyoto Machida. Even so, the Souza fight was a reminder that there are levels to this game, and try as he might, Brunson just is not among the middleweight elite.
Brunson has the tools to upset Adesanya, but I have no confidence he is actually going to do so. For all the improvements that Adesanya has made with his wrestling, Brunson is still easily the best wrestler he has faced to date and could just choose to grind out a win. Instead, Brunson is either going to come out too wild and aggressive, making him a sitting duck for Adesanya’s kickboxing, or be way too passive on the feet, making him a sitting duck for Adesanya’s kickboxing. The pick is Adesanya via first-round knockout.
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