Lightweights
Will Brooks (19-2) vs. Charles Oliveira (21-7)Keep that fight in perspective, though. Oliveira, already a massive lightweight, missed the limit by an outrageous six and a half pounds. It was the Brazilian’s first attempted fight in the lightweight division in a year, and since missing weight, he has competed twice as a welterweight. On the night of the fight, he was likely at least 10 pounds heavier than Brooks and certainly an inch taller with a six-inch reach advantage. Brooks did not look good, but now is not the time to give up on one of the lightweight division’s most talented contenders. Brooks deserves a chance to win back his momentum, and he will get it when he faces another Brazilian named Oliveira.
Like his much larger counterpart, Oliveira has had his fair share of issues with the weight cut. After missing weight by a full 10 pounds in his last fight -- it marked the fourth time he had failed to make the featherweight limit -- against Ricardo Lamas, Oliveira has finally been forced to return to the lightweight division. Fortunately for Brooks, that means fighting an average-sized lightweight rather than a large welterweight. Oliveira will have the advantage in reach, but he was rarely disposed to use his wingspan, even at 145 pounds. Instead, Oliveira is liable to march forward toward the clinch, where he uses hard knees to set up his trademark front headlock chokes. Five of Oliveira’s 13 submissions have sprung from that position: three anacondas and two guillotines. A smattering of other submissions, ranging from the traditional (four rear-naked chokes) to the esoteric (one reverse calf slicer and one inverted triangle armbar) paints the picture of a truly dangerous and extremely aggressive grappler.
Oliveira has a tendency to fade and lose confidence, one which has manifested itself in various ways. He seemed to grapple with the idea of continuing to fight before collapsing following a Cub Swanson right hand. Max Holloway broke Oliveira’s will with a sniper-like series of strafing rights. If Nik Lentz were anything more than a workmanlike striker, he, too, may have ended Oliveira’s night early, when he compelled the Brazilian to turn away and cover up against the fence after landing a clean cross. Oliveira has also had issues with stamina, though those may be alleviated somewhat by the more forgiving weight cut.
Whether Brooks can capitalize on these weaknesses remains to be seen. Just 10 of Brooks’ 19 wins have come via finish, only one of those occurring in his last nine fights. Brooks is capable of masterfully controlling the pace and range of a contest, but he is rarely so impactful that he can steal a round in a single moment. As such, Brooks’ style is uniquely suited for five-round contests, which he may not receive in the UFC for some time. Brooks has shown an ability to fight against type, to stand toe-to-toe or to maul opponents in the clinch, but doing so here would likely give the venomous Oliveira more than a few windows of opportunity.
THE ODDS: Brooks (-255), Oliveira (+210)
THE PICK: Brooks is a brilliant fighter but one whose skill set is ill-suited to three-round undercard fights. Fighting safely, he could almost certainly take a five-round decision from Oliveira or finish him in the later rounds. With only 15 minutes on the table, however, he will need to learn to take more calculated risks in order to work his way back to main-event status. Nonetheless, he should have little difficulty in stopping Oliveira’s takedowns. That alone will neuter the Brazilian’s attack, allowing Brooks to rely on his ever-improving kickboxing. He may want to battle it out in the pocket and in the clinch in the hopes of breaking Oliveira, but even a safer, more typical approach should be enough to net him the win, though it may mean giving away the first round. Brooks by unanimous decision is the pick.
Last Fights » The Prelims