Preview: UFC 197 ‘Jones vs. St. Preux’

Featherweights

Yair Rodriguez (6-1) vs Andre Fili (15-3)

THE MATCHUP: Two of the featherweight division’s youngest and most exciting prospects meet in this main-card opener.

Team Alpha Male may be hemorrhaging talent, but Fili remains alongside teammates Urijah Faber, Chad Mendes and Cody Garbrandt. Fili lacks the wrestling base of many of his associates, but if there is one thing Team Alpha Male has always done well, it is teach scrambling and counter wrestling skills, so these can be expected to improve. In the meantime, Fili fights like a true all-rounder, happy to mix wrestling, striking and submission grappling into one confusing whole.

Fili’s greatest strength is his eye for tactics. Whether a technique works or not, Fili is always quick to file away that information for later use. When Gabriel Benitez showed himself to be vulnerable to the head kick, Fili wisely waited for him to forget about the threat before throwing the kick and following up for the finish. When Felipe Arantes proved impossible to triangle, Fili quickly threatened the triangle and then swept the Brazilian when he postured up to avoid it. This intense focus on minute openings can leave Fili susceptible to opponents with a more measured, strategic approach, but it makes him dangerous in every phase and at every range. Of course, it also leaves him vulnerable to submissions and counterstrikes, as he leaves his neck and arms exposed while hunting for transitions.

While FIli’s UFC career has had a few stops and starts, Rodriguez has been chugging along without issue, notching three wins in the promotion so far. Where Fili is comfortable everywhere, Rodriguez has clear preferences. On the feet, he prefers to fight at long range, where his quick feet and excellent dexterity allow him to fire off a dazzling array of kicks mixed with the occasional punch for flavor. Rodriguez’s boxing is not nearly as good as his kicking, but the variety helps.

Rodriguez’s footwork is not good enough to maintain this distance all the time, but he makes up for it with an explosive wrestling game. By shooting on his opponent’s legs, Rodriguez is able to close the distance on his own terms and prevent his opponent from coming forward too aggressively. On the ground, Rodriguez is a natural. He remains extremely poised regardless of position, constantly shifting his hips, controlling space and looking for submission opportunities.

THE ODDS: Rodriguez (-150), Fili (+130)

THE PICK: Fili is two years older and twice as experienced as Rodriguez, but he is still a young, developing fighter. Without the proper seasoning, it seems unlikely that Fili will be able to overwhelm Rodriguez; on the contrary, he will likely spend large portions of this fight working hard to keep up. Fili, like Daniel Hooker before him, is a serious test for Rodriguez. However, Rodriguez should be able to stymie Fili’s aggression with movement and well-timed counters, just as he did against Hooker. The pick is Rodriguez by submission in round two.

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