Preview: UFC 187 ‘Johnson vs. Cormier’

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FLYWEIGHTS

Joseph Benavidez (21-4, 8-2 UFC) vs. John Moraga (16-3, 5-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Two former title challengers meet in an outstanding matchup at 125 pounds. Benavidez lost to the seemingly unbeatable Demetrious Johnson for a second time in December 2013 but has since run off a pair of dominating wins, the most recent coming over Dustin Ortiz in November. John Dodson blasted Moraga in June, but since then, the Arizona native has rebounded with wins over Justin Scoggins and Willie Gates.

Once mostly a wrestle-grappler with some raw power in his hands, Benavidez has evolved into one of the best strikers in the division. He switches stances often but seems more comfortable in southpaw, where he whirls a vicious straight left, right hook and left kick at all levels in combination. His strongest suit is baiting a strike in the pocket, pulling back to the fringe and then running his opponents onto a counter combination as they move forward. He targets head, body and legs in sequence, mixing up his strike location to keep his opponents guessing, and works at a fantastic pace. Benavidez is still a bit hittable, especially as he moves forward, but he does a solid job of slipping his head off the centerline and using distance to avoid strikes. Wrestling is still a strong suit, and his double-leg is as explosive as ever, though he uses it less than in the past. The Team Alpha Male product’s takedown defense is not impenetrable, but he is lethally dangerous in transition, and many opponents have left their necks exposed just a second too long and ended up in Benavidez’s trademark guillotine. He scrambles beautifully and can bomb away from top position, and his front headlock series is one of the best in the sport.

Moraga’s game is defined by his opportunism and finishing ability, both on the feet and on the ground. He throws vicious power at range, with a strong preference for the left hook and right low kick, both as leads and as counters. His right hand has power, as well, but he tends to leave his feet behind when he throws it and therefore exposes himself to counter shots. Combinations are not his strong suit, either, and he generally loads up on single power shots. The clinch might be Moraga’s best area, as he slices up his opponent with sharp elbows and hard knees while controlling against the cage. He can hit a nice double-leg when the mood strikes, but prefers to counter-wrestle and does his best work when opponents shoot on him: Moraga’s guillotine is absolutely lethal, and he has a lightning-quick move to the back in transition. Still, skilled wrestlers have given Moraga fits, particularly when he fails to stuff the initial shot. Moraga’s entire game depends on exploiting his opponent’s mistakes, whether that happens to be a defensive lapse on the feet or leaving his neck exposed in transition. If his opponent does not give him an opportunity to finish, it is difficult for Moraga to win a decision.

BETTING ODDS: Benavidez (-600), Moraga (+450)

THE PICK: This seems straightforward to me. Benavidez is the more technical and consistent striker, works at a much quicker pace and likely has more power, as well. Barring a miracle punch or submission in transition, which seems unlikely given Benavidez’s own skill in that area, the Team Alpha Male product should take this handily. The pick is Benavidez by wide decision.

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