UFC 173 ‘Barao vs. Dillashaw’ Preview

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Bantamweights

Takeya Mizugaki (19-7-2, 6-2 UFC) vs. Francisco Rivera (10-2, 3-1 UFC)

The Matchup: After alternating wins and losses in World Extreme Cagefighting and the UFC for nearly three years, Mizugaki has pieced together a four-fight winning streak inside the Octagon. As a result, the Japanese veteran has cracked the division’s top 10. Were it not for a controversial loss to Chris Cariaso at UFC 144, Mizugaki could very well be 7-1 inside the Octagon.

Rivera has also built some positive momentum. “Cisco” is unbeaten in his last six appearances, including four with the Las Vegas-based promotion. The only blemish on his mark during that time is a stoppage of Roland Delorme at UFC 149 that was changed to a no-contest after Rivera tested positive for an over-the-counter stimulant. Rivera has since rebounded to post second-round technical knockout triumphs over Edwin Figueroa and George Roop in his last two outings.

While Rivera is a dangerous power puncher with good hand speed and finishing instincts, Mizugaki is not the kind of guy people put to sleep. Despite a tendency to move forward and trade in the pocket, the Hakkei Gym representative is about as durable as they come, going the distance with the likes of Scott Jorgensen, Brian Bowles and a prime Miguel Torres, to name a few.

This does not mean Mizugaki is unhittable. In fact, since most of his best work is done in close quarters, the Japanese standout has absorbed his share of shots. Rivera might be one of the featherweight division’s heaviest hitters, but it is still risky to bet on him becoming the second person to stop Mizugaki with strikes.

Rivera’s path to victory will still reside in his hands. He is fully capable of landing enough clean, hard blows to get the nod from the judges, provided he can avoid clinches and takedowns. That is no easy task against Mizugaki, who specializes in making fights ugly; and there is no guarantee Rivera wins all the exchanges, as his opponent uses both hands, does good work to the head and body and has a solid grasp of footwork and head movement.

The Pick: Rivera will wear down from Mizugaki’s pressure and pace if the knockout does not come. Mizugaki wins by decision.

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