The X Factor: Diaz has never been shy about trading on the feet. That penchant for getting into firefights could cost him dearly against Smith, who has an unnatural knack for scoring knockouts when the chips are down. While Diaz has stood unflinchingly with brawlers like Robbie Lawler, that risk is unnecessary here given the disparity in the grappling department. Regardless, that’s a fact Diaz may choose to ignore come fight time, and it will leave Smith right where he wants to be.
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The Bottom Line: Sooner or later, Smith’s luck was bound to run out, and Diaz is not the type to let anyone back into a fight. Some early fireworks on the feet will give way to a takedown from Diaz and a clinical grappling dissection, with Smith playing the cadaver.